2026 · Week 11

Season outlook

Win out, conference titles and CFP chances. Ordered by CFP chance.

Edition assembled Nov 11, 12:24 PM EST

Source dates

Ratings input: Nov 9, 7:39 PM EST
Game forecasts: Nov 9, 7:44 PM EST
Results captured: Nov 11, 7:37 AM EST
CFP captured: Nov 10, 10:01 PM EST
Availability adjustment: Nov 11, 12:05 PM EST

Remaining-season outlook

138 teams · 200,000 simulationsSaved outlook · Through Week 10 + 3 Week 11 finals

Simulation source dates

Results Nov 11, 7:37 AM EST

Baseline game forecasts: Nov 9, 7:44 PM EST.

Availability adjustment: Nov 11, 12:05 PM EST.

Games have started since this outlook was made. Later results are not included; the next simulation update is pending.

Georgia8–1 · 3 left
Expected wins
10.6
Win out
65.8%
Conference title
60.7%
Make CFP
99.8%
Alabama7–2 · 3 left
Expected wins
9.8
Win out
77.2%
Conference title
25.8%
Make CFP
99.0%
Miami8–1 · 3 left
Expected wins
10.7
Win out
75.4%
Conference title
75.3%
Make CFP
97.7%
Notre Dame8–1 · 3 left
Expected wins
10.8
Win out
77.5%
Conference title
—
Make CFP
97.4%
Texas7–2 · 3 left
Expected wins
9.0
Win out
26.0%
Conference title
6.5%
Make CFP
97.2%
Utah9–0 · 3 left
Expected wins
11.2
Win out
39.3%
Conference title
53.5%
Make CFP
87.3%
Boise State8–1 · 3 left
Expected wins
10.5
Win out
58.4%
Conference title
75.7%
Make CFP
81.3%
Oregon6–3 · 3 left
Expected wins
8.4
Win out
51.7%
Conference title
14.6%
Make CFP
62.0%
Texas Tech8–1 · 3 left
Expected wins
10.2
Win out
42.6%
Conference title
32.6%
Make CFP
54.8%
Indiana8–1 · 3 left
Expected wins
10.4
Win out
49.2%
Conference title
41.9%
Make CFP
51.3%
UCLA9–0 · 3 left
Expected wins
10.7
Win out
17.6%
Conference title
22.6%
Make CFP
49.6%
Ole Miss6–3 · 3 left
Expected wins
8.4
Win out
47.0%
Conference title
1.0%
Make CFP
48.9%
Tennessee7–2 · 3 left
Expected wins
8.8
Win out
21.0%
Conference title
4.7%
Make CFP
41.4%
Kentucky7–2 · 3 left
Expected wins
8.2
Win out
6.8%
Conference title
0.7%
Make CFP
32.5%
LSU6–3 · 3 left
Expected wins
7.9
Win out
25.7%
Conference title
0.2%
Make CFP
28.8%
Wake Forest8–1 · 3 left
Expected wins
9.8
Win out
21.8%
Conference title
14.2%
Make CFP
26.4%
USC7–2 · 3 left
Expected wins
8.7
Win out
14.7%
Conference title
6.9%
Make CFP
25.3%
BYU7–2 · 3 left
Expected wins
9.1
Win out
35.2%
Conference title
5.6%
Make CFP
24.2%
Ohio State6–3 · 3 left
Expected wins
8.1
Win out
37.0%
Conference title
8.8%
Make CFP
18.2%
South Carolina6–3 · 3 left
Expected wins
7.6
Win out
12.4%
Conference title
0.1%
Make CFP
17.8%
New Mexico8–1 · 3 left
Expected wins
10.4
Win out
49.1%
Conference title
70.6%
Make CFP
12.4%
SMU7–2 · 3 left
Expected wins
8.7
Win out
9.1%
Conference title
7.2%
Make CFP
9.5%
Iowa7–2 · 3 left
Expected wins
9.4
Win out
48.0%
Conference title
3.2%
Make CFP
6.2%
Oklahoma5–4 · 3 left
Expected wins
6.5
Win out
12.9%
Conference title
0.2%
Make CFP
5.7%
Arizona7–2 · 3 left
Expected wins
8.9
Win out
23.9%
Conference title
4.0%
Make CFP
4.7%
Missouri6–3 · 3 left
Expected wins
7.4
Win out
5.4%
Conference title
<0.1%
Make CFP
3.3%
Houston7–2 · 3 left
Expected wins
9.1
Win out
32.8%
Conference title
2.8%
Make CFP
2.8%
Liberty8–1 · 3 left
Expected wins
10.7
Win out
74.5%
Conference title
78.8%
Make CFP
2.6%
Louisville6–3 · 3 left
Expected wins
7.9
Win out
26.2%
Conference title
2.3%
Make CFP
2.3%
Wisconsin6–3 · 3 left
Expected wins
8.1
Win out
37.1%
Conference title
1.9%
Make CFP
1.9%
North Texas7–2 · 3 left
Expected wins
9.2
Win out
37.0%
Conference title
50.3%
Make CFP
1.7%
Baylor6–3 · 3 left
Expected wins
7.0
Win out
4.9%
Conference title
1.2%
Make CFP
1.3%
Duke7–2 · 3 left
Expected wins
8.2
Win out
4.4%
Conference title
0.9%
Make CFP
1.1%
James Madison8–2 · 2 left
Expected wins
9.6
Win out
63.7%
Conference title
51.0%
Make CFP
1.0%
Oklahoma State6–3 · 3 left
Expected wins
7.2
Win out
6.6%
Conference title
0.5%
Make CFP
0.5%
Memphis7–2 · 3 left
Expected wins
9.0
Win out
28.6%
Conference title
37.6%
Make CFP
0.4%
Louisiana Tech7–2 · 3 left
Expected wins
9.1
Win out
32.7%
Conference title
36.9%
Make CFP
0.4%
Michigan5–4 · 3 left
Expected wins
6.1
Win out
4.1%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.3%
Clemson6–3 · 3 left
Expected wins
7.5
Win out
10.4%
Conference title
<0.1%
Make CFP
0.3%
Florida5–4 · 3 left
Expected wins
6.8
Win out
20.8%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.2%
UTSA7–2 · 3 left
Expected wins
8.7
Win out
18.0%
Conference title
9.9%
Make CFP
0.2%
Illinois6–3 · 3 left
Expected wins
6.8
Win out
2.3%
Conference title
0.1%
Make CFP
0.2%
North Dakota State7–2 · 3 left
Expected wins
9.3
Win out
44.7%
Conference title
16.2%
Make CFP
<0.1%
Auburn5–4 · 3 left
Expected wins
6.6
Win out
6.0%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
<0.1%
Minnesota5–4 · 3 left
Expected wins
5.9
Win out
3.6%
Conference title
<0.1%
Make CFP
<0.1%
Arizona State5–4 · 3 left
Expected wins
6.3
Win out
7.0%
Conference title
<0.1%
Make CFP
<0.1%
UCF5–4 · 3 left
Expected wins
6.5
Win out
14.3%
Conference title
<0.1%
Make CFP
<0.1%
Northwestern6–3 · 3 left
Expected wins
7.5
Win out
10.0%
Conference title
<0.1%
Make CFP
<0.1%
Jacksonville State7–2 · 3 left
Expected wins
9.0
Win out
27.8%
Conference title
20.8%
Make CFP
<0.1%
Toledo7–2 · 3 left
Expected wins
9.3
Win out
43.3%
Conference title
32.6%
Make CFP
<0.1%
Air Force7–2 · 3 left
Expected wins
8.8
Win out
13.5%
Conference title
1.4%
Make CFP
<0.1%
Oregon State5–4 · 3 left
Expected wins
6.3
Win out
6.3%
Conference title
1.7%
Make CFP
<0.1%
Texas A&M4–5 · 3 left
Expected wins
5.3
Win out
9.1%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
<0.1%
Akron1–9 · 2 left
Expected wins
1.8
Win out
18.4%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
App State5–4 · 3 left
Expected wins
6.6
Win out
15.5%
Conference title
<0.1%
Make CFP
0.0%
Arkansas3–6 · 3 left
Expected wins
3.5
Win out
0.4%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Arkansas State4–5 · 3 left
Expected wins
5.3
Win out
8.2%
Conference title
<0.1%
Make CFP
0.0%
Army5–4 · 2 left*
Expected wins
6.3
Win out
40.5%
Conference title
1.1%
Make CFP
0.0%
Ball State3–6 · 3 left
Expected wins
4.0
Win out
3.1%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Boston College4–5 · 3 left
Expected wins
4.6
Win out
<0.1%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Bowling Green3–7 · 2 left
Expected wins
3.9
Win out
11.5%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Buffalo6–3 · 3 left
Expected wins
7.6
Win out
16.3%
Conference title
3.9%
Make CFP
0.0%
California3–6 · 3 left
Expected wins
4.2
Win out
5.0%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Central Michigan4–5 · 3 left
Expected wins
5.9
Win out
24.5%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Charlotte1–8 · 3 left
Expected wins
1.5
Win out
0.6%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Cincinnati5–4 · 3 left
Expected wins
6.4
Win out
7.1%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Coastal Carolina3–6 · 3 left
Expected wins
3.8
Win out
1.1%
Conference title
<0.1%
Make CFP
0.0%
Colorado3–6 · 3 left
Expected wins
4.1
Win out
4.6%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Colorado State3–6 · 3 left
Expected wins
3.5
Win out
0.5%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Delaware4–5 · 3 left
Expected wins
5.7
Win out
18.9%
Conference title
0.2%
Make CFP
0.0%
East Carolina5–4 · 3 left
Expected wins
6.9
Win out
23.9%
Conference title
0.6%
Make CFP
0.0%
Eastern Michigan4–6 · 2 left
Expected wins
4.9
Win out
11.3%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Florida Atlantic6–3 · 3 left
Expected wins
7.1
Win out
5.2%
Conference title
0.1%
Make CFP
0.0%
Florida International4–5 · 3 left
Expected wins
5.6
Win out
14.2%
Conference title
<0.1%
Make CFP
0.0%
Florida State4–5 · 3 left
Expected wins
5.6
Win out
14.0%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Fresno State5–4 · 3 left
Expected wins
6.9
Win out
21.7%
Conference title
1.1%
Make CFP
0.0%
Georgia Southern5–4 · 3 left
Expected wins
6.7
Win out
18.5%
Conference title
11.8%
Make CFP
0.0%
Georgia State5–4 · 3 left
Expected wins
6.4
Win out
11.0%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Georgia Tech2–7 · 3 left
Expected wins
2.4
Win out
0.2%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Hawai'i3–6 · 3 left
Expected wins
4.6
Win out
15.3%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Iowa State4–5 · 3 left
Expected wins
5.5
Win out
13.2%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Kansas3–6 · 3 left
Expected wins
4.4
Win out
11.0%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Kansas State4–5 · 3 left
Expected wins
5.2
Win out
6.6%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Kennesaw State3–6 · 3 left
Expected wins
4.7
Win out
18.1%
Conference title
<0.1%
Make CFP
0.0%
Kent State3–7 · 2 left
Expected wins
3.6
Win out
8.9%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Louisiana6–3 · 3 left
Expected wins
8.2
Win out
37.3%
Conference title
0.3%
Make CFP
0.0%
Marshall5–4 · 3 left
Expected wins
6.7
Win out
19.3%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Maryland3–6 · 3 left
Expected wins
3.6
Win out
0.8%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Massachusetts5–4 · 3 left
Expected wins
5.9
Win out
1.6%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Miami (OH)6–4 · 2 left
Expected wins
7.0
Win out
20.1%
Conference title
1.5%
Make CFP
0.0%
Michigan State3–6 · 3 left
Expected wins
4.0
Win out
3.1%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Middle Tennessee5–4 · 3 left
Expected wins
6.1
Win out
2.0%
Conference title
0.1%
Make CFP
0.0%
Mississippi State4–5 · 3 left
Expected wins
5.3
Win out
4.9%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Missouri State3–6 · 3 left
Expected wins
3.9
Win out
1.7%
Conference title
<0.1%
Make CFP
0.0%
Navy3–6 · 2 left*
Expected wins
4.1
Win out
25.2%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
NC State4–5 · 3 left
Expected wins
5.2
Win out
5.5%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Nebraska5–4 · 3 left
Expected wins
6.5
Win out
10.1%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Nevada3–6 · 3 left
Expected wins
4.3
Win out
7.7%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
New Mexico State3–6 · 3 left
Expected wins
4.3
Win out
8.4%
Conference title
<0.1%
Make CFP
0.0%
North Carolina5–4 · 3 left
Expected wins
6.6
Win out
14.7%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Northern Illinois0–9 · 3 left
Expected wins
1.1
Win out
2.9%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Ohio7–3 · 2 left
Expected wins
8.3
Win out
38.8%
Conference title
27.6%
Make CFP
0.0%
Old Dominion3–7 · 2 left
Expected wins
3.8
Win out
12.9%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Penn State5–4 · 3 left
Expected wins
7.3
Win out
48.6%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Pittsburgh6–3 · 3 left
Expected wins
7.7
Win out
14.9%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Purdue3–6 · 3 left
Expected wins
3.4
Win out
0.1%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Rice1–8 · 3 left
Expected wins
1.9
Win out
3.2%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Rutgers2–7 · 3 left
Expected wins
2.8
Win out
1.6%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Sacramento State2–8 · 2 left
Expected wins
2.5
Win out
7.6%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Sam Houston1–8 · 3 left
Expected wins
2.0
Win out
3.8%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
San Diego State4–5 · 3 left
Expected wins
4.8
Win out
1.1%
Conference title
2.1%
Make CFP
0.0%
San José State5–5 · 3 left
Expected wins
5.8
Win out
2.5%
Conference title
<0.1%
Make CFP
0.0%
South Alabama4–5 · 3 left
Expected wins
5.6
Win out
17.7%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
South Florida6–3 · 3 left
Expected wins
8.0
Win out
30.1%
Conference title
0.1%
Make CFP
0.0%
Southern Miss3–6 · 3 left
Expected wins
4.0
Win out
3.4%
Conference title
<0.1%
Make CFP
0.0%
Stanford4–5 · 3 left
Expected wins
4.5
Win out
0.4%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Syracuse4–5 · 3 left
Expected wins
4.9
Win out
1.3%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
TCU4–5 · 3 left
Expected wins
5.1
Win out
4.1%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Temple2–7 · 3 left
Expected wins
3.5
Win out
6.7%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Texas State5–4 · 3 left
Expected wins
7.3
Win out
47.3%
Conference title
17.5%
Make CFP
0.0%
Troy4–5 · 3 left
Expected wins
5.2
Win out
8.1%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Tulane4–5 · 3 left
Expected wins
5.1
Win out
3.8%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Tulsa5–4 · 3 left
Expected wins
6.9
Win out
21.9%
Conference title
<0.1%
Make CFP
0.0%
UAB5–4 · 3 left
Expected wins
5.9
Win out
2.8%
Conference title
0.2%
Make CFP
0.0%
UConn4–5 · 3 left
Expected wins
5.7
Win out
15.8%
Conference title
—
Make CFP
0.0%
UL Monroe2–7 · 3 left
Expected wins
2.8
Win out
1.9%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
UNLV5–4 · 3 left
Expected wins
6.7
Win out
12.2%
Conference title
2.3%
Make CFP
0.0%
Utah State4–5 · 3 left
Expected wins
5.2
Win out
5.7%
Conference title
1.8%
Make CFP
0.0%
UTEP1–8 · 3 left
Expected wins
1.7
Win out
1.2%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Vanderbilt4–5 · 3 left
Expected wins
4.6
Win out
1.0%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Virginia4–5 · 3 left
Expected wins
5.6
Win out
14.1%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Virginia Tech6–3 · 3 left
Expected wins
7.6
Win out
4.5%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Washington5–4 · 3 left
Expected wins
6.2
Win out
4.5%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Washington State1–8 · 3 left
Expected wins
2.5
Win out
8.8%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
West Virginia5–4 · 3 left
Expected wins
5.8
Win out
1.1%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Western Kentucky3–6 · 3 left
Expected wins
4.1
Win out
2.7%
Conference title
<0.1%
Make CFP
0.0%
Western Michigan7–3 · 2 left
Expected wins
8.6
Win out
61.9%
Conference title
34.3%
Make CFP
0.0%
Wyoming6–3 · 3 left
Expected wins
7.4
Win out
7.5%
Conference title
9.5%
Make CFP
0.0%

Expected wins include completed wins. Win out covers remaining regular-season games before CFP selection on Dec. 6; conference-title games and the playoff are excluded from both figures.

* Army and Navy omit their Dec. 12 game, which is after CFP selection.

About these probabilities

Completed results through week 10 + 3 week 11 finals are fixed. One set of 200,000 simulated seasons supplies the available expected-win, win-out, conference-title and CFP probabilities. Conference championships are simulated before CFP selection.

Conference tiebreakers with unavailable future inputs use model estimates. CFP selection is a Saturday Index estimate, separate from the committee’s current rankings. The Group of Six automatic qualifier need not win its conference; Notre Dame’s top-12 protection is included.

See the CFP rankings and playoff bracket →

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