Minnesota

2026 rates aggregate verified completed-game box scores. EPA is expected points added per play.

Drake Lindsey is the most important source of continuity. He started all 13 games in 2025, completing 63.2% of his passes for 2,382 yards, 18 touchdowns and six interceptions while adding four rushing scores. Those numbers describe a quarterback who has already managed a full season and protected the ball, giving Minnesota room to pursue offensive growth rather than conduct a search for basic competence. One issue remains unresolved: Lindsey apologized following a May 1 arrest involving underage alcohol possession and a fraudulent identification document, and Fleck said discipline was being handled internally. Whether that affects the opening game has not been announced.

The offense also has a proven centerpiece in Darius Taylor, Minnesota’s leading rusher in each of his first three seasons. The larger concern is how the Gophers support him. A.J. Turner was reported to be recovering from the serious leg injury that ended his 2025 season in Week 3, leaving the complementary role unsettled. Up front, Greg Johnson brings unusual flexibility after starting every 2025 game across three line positions, but Minnesota still must establish a cohesive five. Tight end carries a similar question: Pierce Walsh and Roman Voss are among the options, without a clear receiving or blocking order. Those rooms will shape protection, formations and Taylor’s workload as much as any play-calling adjustment.

Receiver is the offense’s most visible renovation. Perry Thompson, Noah Jennings and Zion Steptoe arrived through the portal after multiple departures from the 2025 group. The spring game showed possibilities rather than firm roles: Jennings broke a 74-yard reception, Steptoe scored and Jalen Smith led the receivers with five catches. Lindsey should have different body types and big-play options around him, but the crucial work is more ordinary—timing, route precision and identifying who earns targets on important downs. His experience can steady that process; it cannot substitute for chemistry.

Minnesota’s clearest defensive advantage is a pass rush that does not need much introduction. Anthony Smith recorded 12.5 sacks in 2025, Karter Menz added 6.5 and Jaxon Howard had four. Together they produced 23 of the team’s 39 sacks. That group gives Collins a chance to generate disruption without constantly committing extra rushers, an important benefit while other units settle. Maverick Baranowski anchors the second level, where Matt Kingsbury and Emmanuel Karmo have meaningful experience and Eastern Michigan transfer Andrew Marshall adds depth. The uncertainty is concentrated inside: a rebuilt defensive-tackle rotation must hold its ground well enough for those edge and linebacker strengths to matter.

The secondary faces its own reconstruction after Koi Perich’s departure. Minnesota added Aydan West, Elisha West, Parker Knutson and Mekhai Smith, with Aydan West expected to challenge opposite John Nestor and the nickel role still open earlier in the offseason. The task is bigger than selecting starters. New and expanded roles must fit together well enough to prevent coverage busts and give the pass rush time to arrive. With several candidates entering the competition, Minnesota has options; how quickly those options become a coherent unit is one of the defense’s defining preseason questions.

The schedule gives the Gophers an opening window to sort through those decisions, followed by an immediate rise in difficulty. Eastern Illinois, Mississippi State and Akron visit Huntington Bank Stadium before Minnesota travels to Washington and returns home to face Michigan. That sequence places a premium on using September’s first three games to establish rotations and communication. Later road trips to Indiana, Penn State and Wisconsin create another demanding stretch, while Iowa, UCLA and Northwestern come to Minneapolis. Minnesota will have little room for reconstructed units to remain unfinished deep into conference play.

That makes Fleck’s 10th season less about discovering the identity of his team than extending a familiar one through extensive personnel change. Lindsey, Taylor, Smith and Baranowski give Minnesota credible answers at four consequential positions. Johnson’s versatility, the new receivers, Taylor’s eventual complement, the defensive tackles and the rebuilt secondary must connect those answers into a complete team. The Gophers have enough continuity to avoid a full reset. Their 2026 trajectory will depend on whether that continuity can turn a collection of new roles into dependable football before the schedule applies its greatest pressure.

vs Mississippi StateSaturday, September 12 · 3:30 PM EDTHuntington Bank StadiumHome

Win probability

68%