Week 4 · FinalW
vs. Rice38–24+14 margin
Pregame 33–15
Game detailsSaturday Index
Loading team intelligenceBringing the latest verified football information into focus.
Saturday Index
Loading team intelligenceBringing the latest verified football information into focus.
Pac-12 · 2026 · Week 8
Photo: Ken Lund · CC BY-SA 2.0 · Cropped for display
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Hosting
Saturday, October 31 · Time TBA
The season, taking shape
Final scores show Fresno State first. Oldest to newest.
vs. RicePregame 33–15
Game details
at Washington StatePregame 23–25
Game details
vs. Boise StatePregame 22–27
Original full-season forecast
This forecast retains the original probabilities for the full schedule. It does not update with completed results or this week’s forecast.
2026 results
Current record, team efficiency, player production, and verified results from completed games.
Current record
4-34 wins · 3 lossesThrough 7 completed gamesLoading player usage…
Original season forecast
The original Pac-12 forecast, retained alongside current results.
Pac-12 projected standing
#5
3-4 projected · 3.4 expected conference wins · #5 of 8.
Preseason baseline
2025 percentiles retained as preseason context; current results and player production lead this page.
2025 FBS percentile scale · 50 is average
Incoming class
National and conference recruiting ranks, confirmed commitments, and the highest-ranked recruits in this class.
Top committed recruits
Fresno State2026 transfer movement
Incoming and outgoing transfer activity, with rated FBS-to-FBS moves below.
Incoming Transfers
Fresno StateOutgoing Transfers
Fresno StateSeason schedule
Completed games show final results. Upcoming games use this week’s forecast where available; later games retain their published season outlook.
Detailed football intelligence
The full team identity, offense, defense, and supporting evidence.
Team identity
Last season, Fresno State tried to lean on the running game; it rarely provided an easy foundation.
Why it matters
The passing game was Fresno State's more workable option, not an established edge; defenses can begin balanced until routine throws force an adjustment.
at San Diego StatePregame 28–21
Game detailsPregame comparisons use preserved published forecasts. Results include wins and losses.
At a glance
Current form leads the outlook.
2026 rates aggregate verified completed-game box scores. EPA is expected points added per play.
| Player | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Mandal | 123/195 | 1393 | 8 | 1 |
| Khristian Martin | 3/4 | 71 | 1 | 0 |
| Jordan Malau'ulu | 1/1 | 21 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayshon Luke | 52 | 333 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Bryson Donelson | 65 | 299 | 4.6 | 5 |
| Julius Gillick | 34 | 143 | 4.2 | 4 |
| Player | REC | YDS | AVG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josiah Freeman | 31 | 424 | 13.7 | 2 |
| Ezekiel Avit | 22 | 373 | 17.0 | 4 |
| Jahlil McClain | 19 | 204 | 10.7 | 1 |
| Player | TOT | SOLO | TFL | SACK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K'Vion Thunderbird | 61 | 29 | 4 | 1 |
| Simeon Harris | 33 | 16 | 1 | 0 |
| Gerayas Grimes | 31 | 17 | 1 | 0 |
Saturday, October 17 · Snapdragon Stadium
Saturday, October 10 · Valley Children's Stadium
Saturday, October 3 · Gesa Field
Profile high point
Big-play prevention held the profile's highest percentile position.Profile low point
The run game held the lowest percentile position among the profile's strength measures.
Fresno State can lean on the defense's control of ordinary downs when a drive slips off schedule, but the run game still needs support.
Why it matters
That unit is the most credible foundation for making opponents string together clean drives; rushing structure remains the first counter an opponent should test.
The run game is Fresno State's biggest concern, and opponents can test it immediately.
What matters
Fresno State's rushing structure ranked near the bottom nationally last season.
Fresno State is at its best when it can lean on the running game, then let the passing game finish drives; an average pace puts more weight on winning ordinary downs.
What matters
Fresno State's run-leaning structure played at a balanced pace. The pass game finished middle-of-the-pack, while the run game finished bottom-tier.
Inside the team
Open a section for the football detail and supporting numbers.
The down-to-down question that determines whether the offense can keep both the run and pass available.
The first question for Fresno State is whether its passing rhythm can force defenses to adjust.
What matters
Routine completions are the most workable route to manageable third downs, not an established advantage.
The pace, play selection, and methods this offense uses to stay on schedule.
Fresno State played at a balanced pace in 2025.
Why it matters
At that pace, Fresno State cannot count on extra possessions or expect to shorten the game.
Fresno State's prior passing record was middle-of-the-pack.
Why it matters
Fresno State's offense needs protection, field position, or explosive variance when ordinary dropbacks do not create enough value.
Fresno State's prior rushing record was bottom-tier.
Why it matters
When Fresno State's run game cannot stay on schedule, protection and passing-down execution carry more of the offense.
Fresno State's explosive-play results were mixed rather than a defining edge.
Why it matters
A big play can still flip a possession, but last season's results do not make explosiveness something this team can rely on.
How consistently the offense creates manageable situations and the defense prevents them.
Fresno State's defense was more consistent down to down than its offense.
Why it matters
Fresno State's success rate shows whether it can sustain drives and get stops without relying on sacks, turnovers, or isolated big plays.
Opponent-adjusted EPA identifies the pass game as Fresno State's stronger offensive unit.
Why it matters
If an opponent removes the first passing answer, the run game's lower adjusted value becomes the key counter to test.
Where the defense can create pressure, control the run, and end drives.
Fresno State's prior defense was strong overall and strongest in pass defense.
What matters
Pass defense finished top-tier, while run front finished below-average; the latter is the first place an offense should test.
Fresno State's available disruption measures finished above the national average last season; a charted pressure rate is not available.
Why it matters
Sustained disruption can create negative plays and give Fresno State a better chance to end drives before third down.
Fresno State created disruption more consistently than it finished sacks.
Why it matters
Fresno State's disruption can hurry an offense; sacks do more by erasing field position and ending passing downs.
Fresno State's prior run-defense results were below-average.
Why it matters
If Fresno State's front cannot control early downs, opponents can keep every offensive option open and protect their passing game.
