Week 5 · FinalL
at Louisiana20–23-3 margin
Pregame 21–29
Game detailsSaturday Index
Loading team intelligenceBringing the latest verified football information into focus.
Saturday Index
Loading team intelligenceBringing the latest verified football information into focus.
Sun Belt · 2026 · Week 8
Photo: SkythrillASU · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Cropped for display
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Hosting
Saturday, November 7 · 3:00 PM EST
The season, taking shape
Final scores show Arkansas State first. Oldest to newest.
at LouisianaPregame 21–29
Game details
vs. South AlabamaPregame 29–26
Game details
at Southern MissPregame
Original full-season forecast
This forecast retains the original probabilities for the full schedule. It does not update with completed results or this week’s forecast.
2026 results
Current record, team efficiency, player production, and verified results from completed games.
Current record
4-44 wins · 4 lossesThrough 8 completed gamesLoading player usage…
Original season forecast
The original Sun Belt forecast, retained alongside current results.
Sun Belt projected standing
#6
4-4 projected · 4.2 expected conference wins · #6 of 14.
Preseason baseline
2025 percentiles retained as preseason context; current results and player production lead this page.
2025 FBS percentile scale · 50 is average
Incoming class
National and conference recruiting ranks, confirmed commitments, and the highest-ranked recruits in this class.
Top committed recruits
Arkansas State2026 transfer movement
Incoming and outgoing transfer activity, with rated FBS-to-FBS moves below.
Incoming Transfers
Arkansas StateOutgoing Transfers
Arkansas StateSeason schedule
Completed games show final results. Upcoming games use this week’s forecast where available; later games retain their published season outlook.
Detailed football intelligence
The full team identity, offense, defense, and supporting evidence.
Team identity
Last season, Arkansas State tried to lean on the passing game; too many drives still went off schedule.
Why it matters
The passing game was Arkansas State's more workable option, not an established edge; defenses can begin balanced until routine throws force an adjustment.
vs. Georgia StatePregame 28–27
Game detailsPregame comparisons use preserved published forecasts. Results include wins and losses.
At a glance
Current form leads the outlook.
2026 rates aggregate verified completed-game box scores. EPA is expected points added per play.
| Player | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Owens | 148/209 | 1807 | 11 | 6 |
| Player | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solomon Baggett | 59 | 279 | 4.7 | 2 |
| Kenyon Clay | 50 | 216 | 4.3 | 3 |
| Trey Owens | 54 | 152 | 2.8 | 4 |
| Player | REC | YDS | AVG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Bonelli | 30 | 442 | 14.7 | 3 |
| Hunter Summers | 28 | 375 | 13.4 | 3 |
| Chauncy Cobb | 32 | 370 | 11.6 | 1 |
| Player | TOT | SOLO | TFL | SACK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Drew | 62 | 29 | 0.5 | 0 |
| AG McGhee | 39 | 24 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Five Hamilton | 31 | 15 | 0.5 | 0 |
Saturday, October 24 · Centennial Bank Stadium
Saturday, October 17 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
Thursday, October 8 · Centennial Bank Stadium
Profile high point
Pressure held the profile's highest percentile position.Profile low point
Big-play creation held the lowest percentile position among the profile's strength measures.
Front-seven disruption is Arkansas State's best starting point, though big-play creation keeps it from carrying the plan alone.
Why it matters
The defense has its best route to changing protection rules before coverage must hold; explosive-play creation remains the first counter an opponent should test.
Big-play creation is Arkansas State's biggest concern, and opponents can test it immediately.
Why it matters
Opponents can squeeze underneath space and make the offense finish long drives without chunk gains; front-seven disruption has to keep that stress from setting the game plan.
Arkansas State's best path is to use the passing game to stay on schedule and finish drives; extra possessions give that plan time to build.
What matters
Arkansas State's pass-first structure played at a fast pace. The pass game finished middle-of-the-pack, while the run game finished bottom-tier.
Inside the team
Open a section for the football detail and supporting numbers.
The down-to-down question that determines whether the offense can keep both the run and pass available.
The first question for Arkansas State is whether its passing rhythm can force defenses to adjust.
What matters
Routine completions are the most workable route to manageable third downs, not an established advantage.
The pace, play selection, and methods this offense uses to stay on schedule.
Arkansas State played at a fast pace in 2025.
Why it matters
More possessions give Arkansas State's strengths additional chances to build, but they also leave more time to recover from mistakes.
Arkansas State's prior passing record was middle-of-the-pack.
Why it matters
Arkansas State's offense needs protection, field position, or explosive variance when ordinary dropbacks do not create enough value.
Arkansas State's prior rushing record was bottom-tier.
Why it matters
When Arkansas State's run game cannot stay on schedule, protection and passing-down execution carry more of the offense.
Explosive plays were a two-way concern in Arkansas State's record last season.
Why it matters
That combination increases dependence on sustained drives while leaving little margin for a missed fit or coverage error.
How consistently the offense creates manageable situations and the defense prevents them.
Arkansas State's offense was more consistent down to down than its defense.
Why it matters
Arkansas State's success rate shows whether it can sustain drives and get stops without relying on sacks, turnovers, or isolated big plays.
Opponent-adjusted EPA identifies the pass game as Arkansas State's stronger offensive unit.
Why it matters
If an opponent removes the first passing answer, the run game's lower adjusted value becomes the key counter to test.
Where the defense can create pressure, control the run, and end drives.
Arkansas State's prior defense was below-average overall and strongest in disruption.
Why it matters
Opponents can use efficient throws to stay out of obvious passing downs; Arkansas State needs its disruption to change protection and erase drives with negative plays before that plan settles in.
Arkansas State's available disruption measures finished above the national average last season; a charted pressure rate is not available.
Arkansas State's sack production outpaced its broader disruption record.
Why it matters
Arkansas State's disruption can hurry an offense; sacks do more by erasing field position and ending passing downs.
Arkansas State's prior run-defense results were middle-of-the-pack.
Why it matters
If Arkansas State's front cannot control early downs, opponents can keep every offensive option open and protect their passing game.
