Week 4 · FinalL
at Jacksonville State13–23-10 margin
Pregame 22–31
Game detailsSaturday Index
Loading team intelligenceBringing the latest verified football information into focus.
Saturday Index
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Conference USA · 2026 · Week 8
Photo: Raider ATO at English Wikipedia · Public domain · Cropped for display
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Hosting
Wednesday, October 28 · 7:00 PM EDT
The season, taking shape
Final scores show Middle Tennessee first. Oldest to newest.
at Jacksonville StatePregame 22–31
Game details
at KansasPregame 17–35
Game details
vs. DelawarePregame
Original full-season forecast
This forecast retains the original probabilities for the full schedule. It does not update with completed results or this week’s forecast.
2026 results
Current record, team efficiency, player production, and verified results from completed games.
Current record
4-34 wins · 3 lossesThrough 7 completed gamesLoading player usage…
Original season forecast
The original Conference USA forecast, retained alongside current results.
Conference USA projected standing
#8
3-5 projected · 2.7 expected conference wins · #8 of 10.
Preseason baseline
2025 percentiles retained as preseason context; current results and player production lead this page.
2025 FBS percentile scale · 50 is average
Incoming class
National and conference recruiting ranks, confirmed commitments, and the highest-ranked recruits in this class.
Top committed recruits
Middle Tennessee2026 transfer movement
Incoming and outgoing transfer activity, with rated FBS-to-FBS moves below.
Incoming Transfers
Middle TennesseeOutgoing Transfers
Middle TennesseeSeason schedule
Completed games show final results. Upcoming games use this week’s forecast where available; later games retain their published season outlook.
Detailed football intelligence
The full team identity, offense, defense, and supporting evidence.
Team identity
Last season, Middle Tennessee tried to lean on the passing game; the results were uneven when the offense tried to live that way.
Why it matters
Neither offensive unit clearly carried the other, so first-down execution decides whether Middle Tennessee can stay on plan.
at Florida InternationalPregame 18–32
Game detailsPregame comparisons use preserved published forecasts. Results include wins and losses.
At a glance
Current form leads the outlook.
2026 rates aggregate verified completed-game box scores. EPA is expected points added per play.
| Player | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Gagliano | 126/215 | 1404 | 12 | 2 |
| Player | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Martin | 94 | 480 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Terrence Brown Jr. | 43 | 312 | 7.3 | 2 |
| Roman Gagliano | 31 | 132 | 4.3 | 2 |
| Player | REC | YDS | AVG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam'Ron Lacy | 41 | 437 | 10.7 | 4 |
| Neo Clifton | 16 | 228 | 14.3 | 3 |
| Markus Allen | 9 | 176 | 19.6 | 1 |
| Player | TOT | SOLO | TFL | SACK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Korey Smith | 61 | 31 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Ashton Taylor | 45 | 26 | 2 | 1.5 |
| Jackson Lowe | 40 | 24 | 2 | 1 |
Tuesday, October 20 · Pitbull Stadium
Tuesday, October 13 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
Saturday, October 3 · Memorial Stadium
Profile high point
Pressure held the profile's highest percentile position.Profile low point
Down-to-down defense held the lowest percentile position among the profile's strength measures.
Middle Tennessee did not have one unit that could carry the whole game plan; the offense's down-to-down consistency came closest.
What matters
Even Middle Tennessee's best unit finished near the national middle last season, leaving no proven strength to build around.
The first place to test Middle Tennessee is the defense's control of ordinary downs, especially on ordinary early downs; the offense's down-to-down consistency has to keep the game on plan.
What matters
Middle Tennessee's defensive control ranked in the lower national range last season.
Middle Tennessee's best path is to lean on the passing game, then keep winning first down because neither the pass nor run clearly carries the other; extra possessions give that plan time to build.
Why it matters
Middle Tennessee's volume still asks defenses to disrupt early throws; the offense has to punish light boxes before that tendency can create a dependable counter. At a faster pace, an early-down advantage gets more chances to build.
Inside the team
Open a section for the football detail and supporting numbers.
The down-to-down question that determines whether the offense can keep both the run and pass available.
Middle Tennessee needs first-down execution before either the run or pass can demand extra attention.
Why it matters
Until that happens, opponents can play the situation rather than sell out to stop one identity.
The pace, play selection, and methods this offense uses to stay on schedule.
Middle Tennessee played at a fast pace in 2025.
Why it matters
More possessions give Middle Tennessee's strengths additional chances to build, but they also leave more time to recover from mistakes.
Middle Tennessee's prior passing record was middle-of-the-pack.
Why it matters
Middle Tennessee's offense needs protection, field position, or explosive variance when ordinary dropbacks do not create enough value.
Why it matters
When Middle Tennessee's run game cannot stay on schedule, protection and passing-down execution carry more of the offense.
Middle Tennessee's explosive-play results were mixed rather than a defining edge.
Why it matters
A big play can still flip a possession, but last season's results do not make explosiveness something this team can rely on.
How consistently the offense creates manageable situations and the defense prevents them.
Middle Tennessee's offense was more consistent down to down than its defense.
Why it matters
Middle Tennessee's success rate shows whether it can sustain drives and get stops without relying on sacks, turnovers, or isolated big plays.
Middle Tennessee's opponent-adjusted passing and rushing value were closely matched.
Why it matters
When the split is narrow, early-down execution matters more than steering the offense toward one obvious weakness.
Where the defense can create pressure, control the run, and end drives.
Middle Tennessee's prior defense was weak overall and strongest in run front.
Why it matters
Opponents can use efficient throws to stay out of obvious passing downs; Middle Tennessee needs its run front to create long-yardage without overloading the box before that plan settles in.
Middle Tennessee's available disruption measures finished near the national middle last season; a charted pressure rate is not available.
Middle Tennessee's sack and disruption results were below-average.
Why it matters
Middle Tennessee's disruption can hurry an offense; sacks do more by erasing field position and ending passing downs.
Middle Tennessee's prior run-defense results were strong.
Why it matters
A dependable run front can let Middle Tennessee create obvious passing downs without committing extra bodies to the box.
