Week 2Home
vs New Mexico State
New Mexico State
Saturday, September 12 · Time TBA- Venue
- Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
- Win probability
- 81%
Saturday Index
Loading team intelligenceBringing the latest verified football information into focus.
Saturday Index
Loading team intelligenceBringing the latest verified football information into focus.
Mountain West · 2026 · Week 1
Current record, next game, remaining schedule, and program outlook for the Rainbow Warriors.
Photo: LuckyJ008 · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Cropped for display
2026 season probabilities
The highlighted finish is the single most likely record—not a fixed list of game results.
2026 results
Current record, team efficiency, player production, and verified results from completed games.
Current record
0-10 wins · 1 lossThrough 1 completed gameSeason outlook
Opponent, kickoff, venue, and the latest game outlook.
vs New Mexico State
Projected 2026 finish
Where Hawai'i is projected to finish in the Mountain West.
Mountain West projected standing
#4
5-3 projected · 5.2 expected conference wins · #4 of 10.
Preseason baseline
2025 percentiles retained as preseason context; current results and player production lead this page.
2025 FBS percentile scale · 50 is average
Incoming class
National and conference recruiting ranks, confirmed commitments, and the highest-ranked recruits in this class.
Top committed recruits
Hawai'i2026 transfer movement
Incoming and outgoing transfer activity, with rated FBS-to-FBS moves below.
Incoming Transfers
Hawai'iOutgoing Transfers
Hawai'iSeason schedule
Projected record is the highest-probability season total across every possible outcome. Upcoming rows show each matchup’s win chance, not one locked sequence of wins and losses.
Detailed football intelligence
The full team identity, offense, defense, and supporting evidence.
Team identity
Last season, Hawai'i tried to lean on the passing game; the results were uneven when the offense tried to live that way.
Why it matters
The passing game was Hawai'i's more dependable way to stay ahead of the chains; opponents have to interrupt that rhythm without giving the run an easy box.
At a glance
Current form leads the outlook.
2026 rates aggregate verified completed-game box scores. EPA is expected points added per play.
| Player | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Micah Alejado | 30/50 | 269 | 2 | 0 |
| Bjorn Jurgensen | 1/2 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devon Rice | 11 | 35 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Sitani Mikaele | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Bjorn Jurgensen | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Player | REC | YDS | AVG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kainoa Carvalho | 5 | 72 | 14.4 | 0 |
| Tama Uiliata | 8 | 62 | 7.8 | 1 |
| Blaze Kamoku | 3 | 42 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Player | TOT | SOLO | TFL | SACK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kona Moore | 14 | 10 | 2 | 0 |
| Jamih Otis | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Matagi Thompson | 8 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
Saturday, August 29 · Stanford Stadium
Profile high point
Big-play creation held the profile's highest percentile position.Profile low point
The run game held the lowest percentile position among the profile's strength measures.Big-play creation is what Hawai'i can trust most.
Why it matters
The offense has its best route to changing field position without requiring flawless drive efficiency; rushing structure remains the first counter an opponent should test.
The run game is Hawai'i's biggest concern, and opponents can test it immediately.
What matters
Hawai'i's rushing structure ranked near the bottom nationally last season.
Hawai'i's best path is to use the passing game to stay on schedule and finish drives; extra possessions give that plan time to build.
What matters
Hawai'i's pass-heavy structure played at a fast pace. The pass game finished strong, while the run game finished bottom-tier.
Inside the team
Open a section for the football detail and supporting numbers.
The down-to-down question that determines whether the offense can keep both the run and pass available.
Opponents have to break Hawai'i's passing rhythm before it owns early downs.
Why it matters
If Hawai'i keeps finding routine completions, the defense cannot load the box or turn the rush loose.
The pace, play selection, and methods this offense uses to stay on schedule.
Hawai'i played at a fast pace in 2025.
Why it matters
More possessions give Hawai'i's strengths additional chances to build, but they also leave more time to recover from mistakes.
Hawai'i's prior passing record was strong.
Why it matters
A repeatable pass game can let Hawai'i punish loaded boxes without relying on low-frequency deep completions.
Hawai'i's prior rushing record was bottom-tier.
Why it matters
When Hawai'i's run game cannot stay on schedule, protection and passing-down execution carry more of the offense.
Hawai'i's explosive-play upside came with real defensive volatility.
Why it matters
That mix can produce fast scoring swings in either direction and makes missed tackles or coverage busts especially expensive.
How consistently the offense creates manageable situations and the defense prevents them.
Hawai'i's defense was more consistent down to down than its offense.
Why it matters
Hawai'i's success rate shows whether it can sustain drives and get stops without relying on sacks, turnovers, or isolated big plays.
Opponent-adjusted EPA identifies the pass game as Hawai'i's stronger offensive unit.
Why it matters
If an opponent removes the first passing answer, the run game's lower adjusted value becomes the key counter to test.
Where the defense can create pressure, control the run, and end drives.
Hawai'i's prior defense was middle-of-the-pack overall and strongest in pass defense.
Why it matters
Opponents can test the fits early enough to keep every offensive option open; Hawai'i needs its pass defense to tighten throwing windows before that plan settles in.
Hawai'i's available disruption measures finished near the national middle last season; a charted pressure rate is not available.
Why it matters
Without consistent disruption, Hawai'i's defense must win more snaps through coverage, leverage, and early-down prevention.
Hawai'i's sack and disruption results were above-average.
Why it matters
Hawai'i's disruption can hurry an offense; sacks do more by erasing field position and ending passing downs.
Hawai'i's prior run-defense results were below-average.
Why it matters
If Hawai'i's front cannot control early downs, opponents can keep every offensive option open and protect their passing game.
