Virginia

2026 rates aggregate verified completed-game box scores. EPA is expected points added per play.

The skill positions ask Kitchings to build function before flash. Middle Tennessee transfer Jekail Middlebrook took the first running-back rep at the start of camp after producing 1,228 all-purpose yards in 2025, the earliest separation in a six-back room replacing All-ACC workhorse J’Mari Taylor. At receiver, Kameron Courtney is the only returner among Virginia’s five 2025 wideouts with at least 16 catches; the other returning receivers combined for 10. That shortage of proven production could narrow the passing game, particularly on obvious passing downs. Tight end offers one possible bridge. Converted receiver Dakota Twitty returns healthy after missing 2025, and the staff calls the position the core of the offense. His receiving background can create matchups, but the room also must replace Sage Ennis’s blocking reliability; transfer Lukas Ungar was limited in spring.

The scale of the rebuild makes leadership as important as talent. Virginia signed 29 transfers and 14 high-school players, and 34 newcomers arrived for spring. The transfers brought 22,953 prior college snaps, supplying experience without eliminating the work of learning new language, assignments and teammates. Boley, linebacker Kam Robinson and Pribula represented the program at ACC Kickoff; Boley and Robinson, in particular, are responsible for carrying the returning standard into a group with many new voices. For Elliott, the advantage is that neither the offensive nor defensive teaching structure has changed. The test is how quickly experience from elsewhere becomes dependable execution at Virginia.

Defensively, the most urgent reconstruction is up front. Virginia must replace Jahmeer Carter, Daniel Rickert and Mitchell Melton, leaving edge Fisher Camac and interior lineman Jason Hammond as prominent returning pieces. Their job is larger than generating pressure: the line must occupy and defeat blocks so a talented linebacker level can run cleanly to the ball. Robinson is the centerpiece of that level after finishing as runner-up for 2025 ACC Defensive Player of the Year, but he is rehabilitating the ACL tear that ended his season in November. His availability for the NC State opener remained unclear at ACC Kickoff. If he needs more time, the rebuilt line’s ability to protect the second level becomes even more important.

The secondary should give Rudzinski more options. Elliott said Virginia reached the end of spring with substantially fewer questions there than a year earlier after adding experienced transfers including Brandyn Hillman and Donavon Platt. More numbers and experience can support competition, matchup-based personnel and greater flexibility behind the reconstructed front. The staff had not named a settled starting five, but that is a narrower concern than last year’s broader shortage of answers. The room does not need every role fixed early; it does need communication to develop quickly enough to prevent a new front and a reshuffled back end from compounding one another’s mistakes.

The schedule allows almost no private rehearsal. Virginia opens at Scott Stadium against NC State on Aug. 29, putting the new quarterback, rebuilt receiving corps and Robinson’s recovery status into an ACC game immediately. Norfolk State follows before a neutral-site meeting with West Virginia and a home date with Delaware. October raises the travel pressure with trips to Florida State and SMU around home games against Syracuse and Duke, followed by a visit to Wake Forest. California and North Carolina then come to Charlottesville before the regular season closes at Virginia Tech. The opener rewards fast integration; the road-heavy middle and rivalry finish make a prolonged adjustment period costly.

Virginia’s clearest path is not mystery. Elliott has continuity on the sideline, a veteran offensive line and experienced transfers across the roster. Those strengths can support a physical offense and buy time for the quarterback and receivers to establish a workable hierarchy. The pressure points are equally direct: replacing proven skill production, rebuilding the defensive line and navigating Robinson’s recovery. If Boley’s group controls games and the newcomers settle quickly, Virginia can preserve the identity behind its 2025 breakthrough. If protection, timing or front-seven structure frays, the schedule will expose it early. This season is Elliott’s test of whether continuity can make sweeping change look coherent.

Season outlook

Projected win