Week 2Home
vs Richmond
Richmond
Friday, September 11 · 7:00 PM EDT- Venue
- Carter-Finley Stadium
- Model outlook
- Projected win
Saturday Index
Loading team intelligenceBringing the latest verified football information into focus.
Saturday Index
Loading team intelligenceBringing the latest verified football information into focus.
ACC · 2026 · Week 1
Current record, next game, remaining schedule, and program outlook for the Wolfpack.
2026 season probabilities
The highlighted finish is the single most likely record—not a fixed list of game results.
2026 results
Current record, team efficiency, player production, and verified results from completed games.
Current record
0-10 wins · 1 lossThrough 1 completed game2026 season preview
NC State’s 2026 season turns on a rare contrast: the Wolfpack have continuity at head coach and quarterback while rebuilding much of the roster around them. Dave Doeren enters his 14th season in Raleigh, and C.J. Bailey is back for his third year at NC State. Kurt Roper and DJ Eliot also return for second seasons in their current coordinator roles, allowing the staff to build on its late-2025 progress rather than start over. That stability gives NC State a chance to absorb nearly 50 newcomers, but how quickly those players become a coherent supporting cast will define the year.
Bailey is the center of the entire proposition. He completed 68.8 percent of his passes for 3,105 yards, 25 touchdowns and nine interceptions in 2025, production that gives the Wolfpack an established answer at the sport’s most important position. Bailey said at ACC Kickoff that he remained at NC State despite transfer interest, with his comfort in Roper’s system and NFL development among the factors cited in coverage of his decision. At the first practice open to reporters, Lou Pascucci observed a stronger, more vocal quarterback directing transitions with greater command. Doeren said Bailey now knows the offense well enough to process plays instead of thinking through assignments.
Season outlook
Opponent, kickoff, venue, and the latest game outlook.
vs Richmond
Projected 2026 finish
Where NC State is projected to finish in the ACC.
ACC projected standing
#4
5-4 projected · 5.2 expected conference wins · #4 of 17.
Preseason baseline
2025 percentiles retained as preseason context; current results and player production lead this page.
2025 FBS percentile scale · 50 is average
Incoming class
National and conference recruiting ranks, confirmed commitments, and the highest-ranked recruits in this class.
Top committed recruits
NC State2026 transfer movement
Incoming and outgoing transfer activity, with rated FBS-to-FBS moves below.
Incoming Transfers
NC StateOutgoing Transfers
NC StateSeason schedule
Projected record is the highest-probability season total across every possible outcome. Upcoming rows show each matchup’s win chance, not one locked sequence of wins and losses.
Detailed football intelligence
The full team identity, offense, defense, and supporting evidence.
Team identity
Last season, NC State tried to stay balanced between the run and pass; the approach consistently kept the offense on schedule.
Why it matters
The passing game was NC State's more dependable way to stay ahead of the chains; opponents have to interrupt that rhythm without giving the run an easy box.
At a glance
Current form leads the outlook.
2026 rates aggregate verified completed-game box scores. EPA is expected points added per play.
| Player | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ Bailey | 12/23 | 84 | 0 | 1 |
| Will Wilson | 3/4 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ Bailey | 10 | 33 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Will Wilson | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Jayden Scott | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Player | REC | YDS | AVG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vander Ploog | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 |
| Joshisa Trader | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Davion Dozier | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Player | TOT | SOLO | TFL | SACK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raul Aguirre Jr. | 18 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| King Mack | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Royal III | 7 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Saturday, August 29 · Scott Stadium
That development matters because Bailey will be asked to steady an offense changing around him. Sophomore Will Wilson was identified as the No. 2 quarterback at that open practice after limited situational use in 2025. His athletic ability could give Roper a designed-run changeup while Wilson continues to develop behind Bailey, although the size of any specialized role will depend on how the offense evolves. The larger question is not who leads the quarterback room; it is whether the rest of the unit can give Bailey enough dependable options to make his experience count.
The running game has a promising starting point in Jayden “Duke” Scott, who gained 581 yards and scored four touchdowns on 106 carries last season. His 5.5 yards per attempt suggests he can create value with more opportunities, though a lead-back workload would represent a new demand. The offensive line should help ease that transition. CBS counted Bailey, receiver Keenan Jackson and linemen Teague Andersen, Kamen Smith and Spike Sowells Jr. among five returning offensive starters. Those three experienced linemen give NC State a foundation for protecting Bailey and building a functional run game while the skill-position rotation develops.
Receiver is the offense’s most consequential reconstruction. Jackson leads the returners after catching 28 passes for 281 yards and two touchdowns, but NC State still needs other targets to emerge as reliable separators, third-down options and explosive-play threats. Bailey’s command can improve the timing and structure of the passing game; it cannot manufacture a complete receiving corps by itself. The competition at receiver and tight end therefore carries unusual weight. If Roper finds a dependable rotation, Bailey has the experience to distribute the ball efficiently. If that search lingers, opponents can devote more attention to Jackson and the running game.
The defense faces an even broader production gap. Asaad Brown led the returning defenders with 64 tackles in 2025, making him the most established tackling presence in the group. No other returner recorded more than two tackles for loss or more than one interception, leaving Eliot and co-coordinator Charlton Warren to develop new sources of pressure, backfield disruption and takeaways. A returning secondary core offers some continuity, but the rebuilt front will shape how aggressively that group can play. Brown can anchor the defense; the season may hinge on whether newcomers and holdovers around him form a disruptive rotation rather than merely a serviceable one.
Camp must still settle several important roles, including the complementary backs, Bailey’s primary targets, the defensive front rotation and the specialists around kicker Kanoah Vinesett. Vinesett is a useful known quantity after NC Football News identified him as one of the ACC’s more dependable specialists. His presence could be especially valuable in close games while the receiving corps and defense develop. With 20 incoming transfers and 16 recruits joining a roster that lost 22 transfers, NC State’s range of outcomes is tied less to the volume of additions than to how many become trustworthy contributors early.
The schedule tests that integration immediately. The Aug. 29 opener against Virginia moved from Brazil to Scott Stadium, removing international travel but leaving NC State with a Week 1 conference road game at the start of the national schedule. A Sept. 19 trip to Vanderbilt and an Oct. 3 home game against Louisville are other early pressure points. The Wolfpack later travel across the country to Stanford for a 10:30 p.m. ET Friday kickoff on Oct. 23, then finish with consecutive road games at Florida State and North Carolina. Seven home games and two open weeks provide useful balance, but the five road dates are concentrated in spots that will demand maturity from a reshaped roster.
That is the case for NC State in 2026: Bailey gives Doeren a proven quarterback around whom to organize a season of change. Scott, Jackson, Brown and Vinesett each provide a foothold in rooms that need new contributors, while three experienced offensive linemen offer another layer of continuity. The Wolfpack do not need every newcomer to become a star. They need enough of them to establish reliable receiving, rushing and defensive rotations before the schedule’s most demanding stretches. If that happens, Bailey’s third year in Roper’s offense can become more than a source of stability; it can give NC State a meaningful path forward.
This preview is based on the linked public reporting and official program records.
Profile high point
Big-play creation held the profile's highest percentile position.Profile low point
Big-play prevention held the lowest percentile position among the profile's strength measures.Big-play creation is what NC State can trust most.
Why it matters
The offense has its best route to changing field position without requiring flawless drive efficiency; front-seven disruption remains the first counter an opponent should test.
The first place to test NC State is front-seven disruption, especially on ordinary early downs; big-play creation has to keep the game on plan.
What matters
NC State's front-seven disruption ranked in the lower national range last season.
NC State is at its best when it can stay balanced between the run and pass, then let the passing game finish drives; fewer possessions make every empty drive more expensive.
Why it matters
NC State's clean script uses efficient early throws to stay ahead of the sticks; defenses will attack protection and route timing before the full passing menu opens. In a slower game, one empty drive or failed early-down series carries extra weight.
Inside the team
Open a section for the football detail and supporting numbers.
The down-to-down question that determines whether the offense can keep both the run and pass available.
Opponents have to break NC State's passing rhythm before it owns early downs.
Why it matters
If NC State keeps finding routine completions, the defense cannot load the box or turn the rush loose.
The pace, play selection, and methods this offense uses to stay on schedule.
NC State played at a deliberate pace in 2025.
What matters
NC State worked with fewer possessions than most teams last season.
NC State's prior passing record was strong.
Why it matters
A repeatable pass game can let NC State punish loaded boxes without relying on low-frequency deep completions.
NC State's prior rushing record was above-average.
Why it matters
When NC State's run game cannot stay on schedule, protection and passing-down execution carry more of the offense.
NC State's explosive-play upside came with real defensive volatility.
Why it matters
That mix can produce fast scoring swings in either direction and makes missed tackles or coverage busts especially expensive.
How consistently the offense creates manageable situations and the defense prevents them.
NC State won ordinary downs on both sides of the ball.
Why it matters
NC State's success rate shows whether it can sustain drives and get stops without relying on sacks, turnovers, or isolated big plays.
NC State's opponent-adjusted passing and rushing value were closely matched.
Why it matters
When the split is narrow, early-down execution matters more than steering the offense toward one obvious weakness.
Where the defense can create pressure, control the run, and end drives.
NC State's prior defense was below-average overall and strongest in run front.
Why it matters
Opponents can trust normal protection and make coverage hold through the route; NC State needs its run front to create long-yardage without overloading the box before that plan settles in.
Why it matters
Without consistent disruption, NC State's defense must win more snaps through coverage, leverage, and early-down prevention.
NC State's sack and disruption results were weak.
Why it matters
NC State's disruption can hurry an offense; sacks do more by erasing field position and ending passing downs.
NC State's prior run-defense results were above-average.
Why it matters
A dependable run front can let NC State create obvious passing downs without committing extra bodies to the box.
