How it works

Methodology

Understand the public win outlook, captured Vegas lines, the separate Rule 5 selection system, and where uncertainty remains.

Reading the model

What the numbers do—and do not—say

Six principles govern how Saturday Index separates game outlooks, market context, selection review, and incomplete data.

Win outlook
The public win outlook translates the published matchup margin into a calibrated probability. It is market-aware when recorded lines are available and communicates uncertainty without presenting one exact final score as uniquely likely.
Vegas lines
Recorded spread, total, and moneyline values are a timestamped multi-book snapshot. They can move after capture and are never presented as current values or Saturday Index outputs.
Forecast and Rule 5
The Saturday Index Forecast predicts the most likely final score. Rule 5 separately evaluates whether a betting line meets a historically tested market profile, so the two can disagree. Once an official selection is published, a later projection does not replace it.
Season outlook
Projected season records come from one reciprocal game-level ledger, so each modeled win creates the opponent’s modeled loss. Partial records name their denominator; unmodeled games remain visible and count as neither.
Protecting pregame integrity
Every pregame input is frozen at a named cutoff so final outcomes and later information cannot enter a historical prediction. An incomplete update can never replace the last verified public view.
Limitations
Early-season information is sparse, markets move, player availability changes, and model error is meaningful. The product should make those limits easier—not harder—to see.

Definitions

The terms used across projections, rankings, and the weekly betting card.

Win outlook: The probability view shown on matchup, scoreboard, and team surfaces after the publication-readiness gates pass.
Vegas line: A captured market spread, total, or moneyline shown for context.
Rule 5: A separate betting-line qualification system whose official published selections are tracked independently from projected scores.
Fair-line edge: The difference between the Betting Dashboard’s fair line and the captured Vegas spread for the reviewed side.
Coverage: How many eligible games or teams have the inputs needed for an output.
As of: The named cutoff time for every input included in a projection or recorded line.