Saturday Index
Getting this view readyBringing the latest verified football information into focus.
Saturday Index
Getting this view readyBringing the latest verified football information into focus.
How it works
Understand the public win outlook, captured Vegas lines, the separate Rule 5 selection system, and where uncertainty remains.
Reading the model
Six principles govern how Saturday Index separates game outlooks, market context, selection review, and incomplete data.
Starting in Week 5 of 2026, current scheduled-game margins blend our existing Premium model and our in-season efficiency model equally. Win outlooks use the same margin and Premium probability curve, with no betting-market input. Games missing the in-season input retain the Premium model and are labeled. Projected score totals remain 65% independent model and 35% accepted market total.
Recorded spread, total, and moneyline values are a timestamped multi-book snapshot. They can move after capture and are never presented as current values or Saturday Index outputs.
The Saturday Index Forecast predicts the most likely final score. Rule 5 separately evaluates whether a betting line meets a historically tested market profile, so the two can disagree. Once an official selection is published, a later projection does not replace it.
Projected season records come from one reciprocal game-level ledger, so each modeled win creates the opponent’s modeled loss. Partial records name their denominator; unmodeled games remain visible and count as neither.
Every pregame input is frozen at a named cutoff so final outcomes and later information cannot enter a historical prediction. An incomplete update can never replace the last verified public view.
Early-season information is sparse, markets move, player availability changes, and model error is meaningful. The product should make those limits easier—not harder—to see.
Definitions
The terms used across projections, rankings, and the weekly betting card.