TCU

2026 rates aggregate verified completed-game box scores. EPA is expected points added per play.

The most direct way to support Craig is to make Jeremy Payne central to the offense. Payne closed 2025 with consecutive 100-yard games and scored the winning touchdown in the Alamo Bowl, giving TCU a credible lead back for its efficiency push. Jon Denman is the most proven returning complement, though he missed spring practice while recovering from labrum surgery and was projected to return in the fall. Division II transfer Landon Walker offers another option, with his adjustment to Big 12 competition still ahead. The rotation’s depth will depend partly on Denman’s recovery and Walker’s transition.

Craig also inherits a proven primary target in Jordan Dwyer, who caught 54 passes for 730 yards and seven touchdowns in 2025. Major Everhart, sophomore Ed Small and transfer Jeremy Scott broaden the receiving group. Tight end requires a collective solution after the departure of DJ Rogers and his 34 catches: Kari Ashley, Ka’Morreun Pimpton, Lafayette Kaiuway and Mason Peterson offer different strengths, but none has been established as a complete replacement. Up front, veteran left tackle Ben Taylor-Whitfield and guard Cade Bennett anchor a deep group, with Cooper Powers projected at center. Dykes has described Taylor-Whitfield, who has more than 20 career starts and 1,800 snaps, as a potential all-conference and NFL-caliber tackle. Cohesion at right guard and right tackle remains a camp question.

Avalos expects TCU’s defensive front to improve in the third year of his build. Markis Deal and Ansel Din-Mbuh return inside, while Paul Oyewale supplies experience on the edge. Zach Chapman could strengthen that pairing after missing spring work; Avalos expected him to be back at full speed in June. Koron Hayward, John Schobel, CJ Woodfork and Cheta Ofili are among the alternatives if larger roles are required. At linebacker, Max Carroll is projected to move into the Mike role after appearing in every 2025 game as a reserve, with Virginia Tech and North Carolina transfer Michael Short projected beside him. Carroll’s continuity and Short’s experience must translate into reliable second-level play.

Safety Jamel Johnson gives Avalos a proven centerpiece. Johnson led TCU with five interceptions, ranked second on the team with 96 tackles and earned the program’s only place on the preseason All-Big 12 team. His communication and takeaway ability matter even more while responsibilities are settled around him. Jordan Lester and Louisiana Tech transfer Jacob Fields competed at field safety in the spring, while Julius Simms and LSU transfer Kylin Jackson remained in contention at nickel. Because both positions carry important coverage and run-fit duties, their resolution will shape the defense’s consistency.

The schedule will test TCU’s progress in stages. The Horned Frogs open against North Carolina at Aviva Stadium on Aug. 29, then host Grambling and Arkansas State before visiting UCF and hosting BYU. October brings a trip to Baylor followed by home games against West Virginia and Kansas. The closing stretch raises the pressure: TCU visits Arizona, hosts Kansas State and Utah, then finishes at Texas Tech. By then, the Horned Frogs will need more than a capable first unit. Developed depth, settled communication and an offense that avoids self-created trouble will be essential.

TCU’s case for progress begins with Craig’s history of ball security, Payne’s strong finish, Dwyer’s production, Taylor-Whitfield’s experience and Johnson’s playmaking. The swing factors are equally clear: Craig’s move from Ivy League competition, Denman’s and Chapman’s recoveries, the right side of the offensive line, the tight-end rotation and new combinations at linebacker and in the secondary. No firm prediction is warranted, but the standard for Dykes’ team is identifiable. TCU must turn efficiency from an offseason priority into an every-week identity.

Season outlook

Projected win