Week 5 · FinalW
vs. Navy14–9+5 margin
Pregame 27–24
Game detailsSaturday Index
Loading team intelligenceBringing the latest verified football information into focus.
Saturday Index
Loading team intelligenceBringing the latest verified football information into focus.
Mountain West · 2026 · Week 8
Photo: David Shankbone · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Cropped for display
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Hosting
Saturday, October 31 · 3:00 PM EDT
The season, taking shape
Final scores show Air Force first. Oldest to newest.
vs. NavyPregame 27–24
Game details
at Northern IllinoisPregame 27–23
Game details
vs. UNLVPregame 24–25
Original full-season forecast
This forecast retains the original probabilities for the full schedule. It does not update with completed results or this week’s forecast.
2026 results
Current record, team efficiency, player production, and verified results from completed games.
Current record
5-25 wins · 2 lossesThrough 7 completed gamesLoading player usage…
Original season forecast
The original Mountain West forecast, retained alongside current results.
Mountain West projected standing
#5
4-4 projected · 4.1 expected conference wins · #5 of 10.
Preseason baseline
2025 percentiles retained as preseason context; current results and player production lead this page.
2025 FBS percentile scale · 50 is average
Incoming class
National and conference recruiting ranks, confirmed commitments, and the highest-ranked recruits in this class.
Top committed recruits
Air Force2026 transfer movement
Incoming and outgoing transfer activity, with rated FBS-to-FBS moves below.
Season schedule
Completed games show final results. Upcoming games use this week’s forecast where available; later games retain their published season outlook.
Detailed football intelligence
The full team identity, offense, defense, and supporting evidence.
Team identity
Last season, Air Force tried to lean on the running game; the approach consistently kept the offense on schedule.
Why it matters
Neither offensive unit clearly carried the other, so first-down execution decides whether Air Force can stay on plan.
at WyomingPregame 26–22
Game detailsPregame comparisons use preserved published forecasts. Results include wins and losses.
At a glance
Current form leads the outlook.
2026 rates aggregate verified completed-game box scores. EPA is expected points added per play.
| Player | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam Szarka | 19/38 | 296 | 1 | 4 |
| Evan Medders | 8/14 | 92 | 2 | 0 |
| Howard Fisher IV | 3/7 | 36 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Medders | 73 | 490 | 6.7 | 6 |
| Liam Szarka | 92 | 391 | 4.3 | 7 |
| Owen Allen | 88 | 376 | 4.3 | 3 |
| Player | REC | YDS | AVG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simon Kibbee | 8 | 135 | 16.9 | 0 |
| Matt Long | 7 | 110 | 15.7 | 2 |
| Adam Hrynciw | 5 | 89 | 17.8 | 1 |
| Player | TOT | SOLO | TFL | SACK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Fletcher | 73 | 35 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Dallas Daley | 44 | 22 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Korey Johnson | 26 | 16 | 0.5 | 0 |
Friday, October 23 · War Memorial Stadium
Saturday, October 17 · Falcon Stadium
Saturday, October 10 · Huskie Stadium
Profile high point
Passing held the profile's highest percentile position.Profile low point
Down-to-down defense held the lowest percentile position among the profile's strength measures.
The passing game is what Air Force can trust most.
Why it matters
The opening plan has its best answer when opponents crowd the box or force obvious throwing situations; defensive control remains the first counter an opponent should test.
The defense's control of ordinary downs is Air Force's biggest concern, and opponents can test it immediately.
Why it matters
Opponents can stay patient, keep every offensive option open, and make the defense win ordinary downs; passing efficiency has to keep that stress from setting the game plan.
Air Force's best path is to lean on the running game, then keep both the pass and run available because neither part of the offense has to carry the plan alone; an average pace puts more weight on winning ordinary downs.
What matters
Air Force's run-heavy structure played at a balanced pace. Passing finished top-tier and rushing finished top-tier, without a clear split between them.
Inside the team
Open a section for the football detail and supporting numbers.
The down-to-down question that determines whether the offense can keep both the run and pass available.
Opponents have to win first down before Air Force can keep both answers available.
What matters
Neither the pass nor run separated enough to become the only priority, so first-down execution is the real target.
The pace, play selection, and methods this offense uses to stay on schedule.
Air Force played at a balanced pace in 2025.
Why it matters
At that pace, Air Force cannot count on extra possessions or expect to shorten the game.
Air Force's prior passing record was top-tier.
Why it matters
A repeatable pass game can let Air Force punish loaded boxes without relying on low-frequency deep completions.
Why it matters
A sustainable run game keeps Air Force's play action credible and limits obvious passing situations.
Air Force's explosive-play results were mixed rather than a defining edge.
Why it matters
A big play can still flip a possession, but last season's results do not make explosiveness something this team can rely on.
How consistently the offense creates manageable situations and the defense prevents them.
Air Force's offense was more consistent down to down than its defense.
Why it matters
Air Force's success rate shows whether it can sustain drives and get stops without relying on sacks, turnovers, or isolated big plays.
Opponent-adjusted EPA identifies the pass game as Air Force's stronger offensive unit.
Why it matters
If an opponent removes the first passing answer, the run game's lower adjusted value becomes the key counter to test.
Where the defense can create pressure, control the run, and end drives.
Air Force's prior defense was bottom-tier overall, with no clear separation among its main units.
Why it matters
An offense can keep both the run and pass available and test each unit until the defense proves it can win ordinary early downs.
Air Force's available disruption measures ranked near the bottom nationally last season; a charted pressure rate is not available.
Air Force's sack and disruption results were bottom-tier.
Why it matters
Air Force's disruption can hurry an offense; sacks do more by erasing field position and ending passing downs.
Why it matters
If Air Force's front cannot control early downs, opponents can keep every offensive option open and protect their passing game.
