Week 4 · FinalW
at Bowling Green14–6+8 margin
Pregame 36–17
Game detailsSaturday Index
Loading team intelligenceBringing the latest verified football information into focus.
Saturday Index
Loading team intelligenceBringing the latest verified football information into focus.
American Athletic · 2026 · Week 8
Photo: Devin Morris · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Cropped for display
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Saturday, October 31 · Time TBA
The season, taking shape
Final scores show South Florida first. Oldest to newest.
at Bowling GreenPregame 36–17
Game details
vs. TemplePregame 34–19
Game details
at UTSAPregame 28–24
Original full-season forecast
This forecast retains the original probabilities for the full schedule. It does not update with completed results or this week’s forecast.
2026 results
Current record, team efficiency, player production, and verified results from completed games.
Current record
5-25 wins · 2 lossesThrough 7 completed gamesLoading player usage…
Original season forecast
The original American Athletic forecast, retained alongside current results.
American Athletic projected standing
#1
7-1 projected · 6.3 expected conference wins · conference favorite.
Preseason baseline
2025 percentiles retained as preseason context; current results and player production lead this page.
2025 FBS percentile scale · 50 is average
Incoming class
National and conference recruiting ranks, confirmed commitments, and the highest-ranked recruits in this class.
Top committed recruits
South Florida2026 transfer movement
Incoming and outgoing transfer activity, with rated FBS-to-FBS moves below.
Incoming Transfers
South FloridaOutgoing Transfers
South FloridaSeason schedule
Completed games show final results. Upcoming games use this week’s forecast where available; later games retain their published season outlook.
Detailed football intelligence
The full team identity, offense, defense, and supporting evidence.
Team identity
Last season, South Florida tried to stay balanced between the run and pass; the approach consistently kept the offense on schedule.
Why it matters
Neither offensive unit clearly carried the other, so first-down execution decides whether South Florida can stay on plan.
vs. Kent StatePregame 39–12
Game detailsPregame comparisons use preserved published forecasts. Results include wins and losses.
At a glance
Current form leads the outlook.
2026 rates aggregate verified completed-game box scores. EPA is expected points added per play.
| Player | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Van Buren Jr. | 115/179 | 1266 | 6 | 0 |
| Luke Kromenhoek | 2/4 | 21 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.J. Crowther | 105 | 518 | 4.9 | 7 |
| Jason Collins Jr. | 47 | 229 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Michael Van Buren Jr. | 49 | 87 | 1.8 | 2 |
| Player | REC | YDS | AVG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryson Rodgers | 30 | 334 | 11.1 | 2 |
| Joshua Porter | 23 | 274 | 11.9 | 2 |
| Cameron Seldon | 12 | 176 | 14.7 | 1 |
| Player | TOT | SOLO | TFL | SACK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayden Jackson | 38 | 24 | 3 | 1 |
| Zavier Hamilton | 35 | 18 | 3 | 1 |
| Tavin Ward | 34 | 20 | 1 | 0 |
Saturday, October 17 · Raymond James Stadium
Thursday, October 8 · Alamodome
Saturday, October 3 · Raymond James Stadium
Profile high point
Passing held the profile's highest percentile position.Profile low point
Big-play prevention held the lowest percentile position among the profile's strength measures.
The offense's down-to-down consistency is what South Florida can trust most.
Why it matters
That unit is the most credible foundation for sustaining drives after poor field position or an early negative play; front-seven disruption remains the first counter an opponent should test.
South Florida did not show one unit opponents could treat as an automatic target; front-seven disruption is only the first place to look.
What matters
South Florida's lowest-rated unit still finished above the national average last season, so opponents do not have an obvious weakness to attack.
For South Florida, the cleanest script is to stay balanced between the run and pass, then keep both the pass and run available because neither part of the offense has to carry the plan alone; an average pace puts more weight on winning ordinary downs.
What matters
South Florida's balanced structure played at a balanced pace. Passing finished top-tier and rushing finished top-tier, without a clear split between them.
Inside the team
Open a section for the football detail and supporting numbers.
The down-to-down question that determines whether the offense can keep both the run and pass available.
Opponents have to win first down before South Florida can keep both answers available.
What matters
Neither the pass nor run separated enough to become the only priority, so first-down execution is the real target.
The pace, play selection, and methods this offense uses to stay on schedule.
South Florida played at a balanced pace in 2025.
Why it matters
At that pace, South Florida cannot count on extra possessions or expect to shorten the game.
South Florida's prior passing record was top-tier.
Why it matters
A repeatable pass game can let South Florida punish loaded boxes without relying on low-frequency deep completions.
Why it matters
A sustainable run game keeps South Florida's play action credible and limits obvious passing situations.
South Florida's explosive-play upside came with real defensive volatility.
Why it matters
That mix can produce fast scoring swings in either direction and makes missed tackles or coverage busts especially expensive.
How consistently the offense creates manageable situations and the defense prevents them.
South Florida won ordinary downs on both sides of the ball.
Why it matters
South Florida's success rate shows whether it can sustain drives and get stops without relying on sacks, turnovers, or isolated big plays.
Opponent-adjusted EPA identifies the pass game as South Florida's stronger offensive unit.
Why it matters
If an opponent removes the first passing answer, the run game's lower adjusted value becomes the key counter to test.
Where the defense can create pressure, control the run, and end drives.
South Florida's prior defense was strong overall and strongest in run front.
What matters
Run front finished top-tier, while disruption still finished above-average; the latter is only the first question, not a weakness an offense can assume.
South Florida's available disruption measures finished above the national average last season; a charted pressure rate is not available.
Why it matters
Sustained disruption can create negative plays and give South Florida a better chance to end drives before third down.
South Florida's disruption regularly finished at the quarterback.
What matters
Both sack production and front-seven disruption cleared the FBS midpoint.
South Florida's prior run-defense results were top-tier.
Why it matters
A dependable run front can let South Florida create obvious passing downs without committing extra bodies to the box.
