Week 2Home
vs UTSA
UTSA
Saturday, September 12 · 3:30 PM EDT- Venue
- Bobcat Stadium (TX)
- Win probability
- 65%
Saturday Index
Loading team intelligenceBringing the latest verified football information into focus.
Saturday Index
Loading team intelligenceBringing the latest verified football information into focus.
Pac-12 · 2026 team profile
Program context and schedule for the Bobcats.
Photo: Rlmcentee · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Cropped for display
2026 season probabilities
The highlighted finish is the single most likely record—not a fixed list of game results.
Season outlook
Opponent, kickoff, venue, and the latest game outlook.
vs UTSA
Projected 2026 finish
Where Texas State is projected to finish in the Pac-12.
Pac-12 projected standing
#3
4-3 projected · 4.3 expected conference wins · #3 of 8.
Primary team read
How Texas State played in 2025.
2025 FBS percentile scale · 50 is average
Incoming class
National and conference recruiting ranks, confirmed commitments, and the highest-ranked recruits in this class.
Top committed recruits
Texas State2026 transfer movement
Incoming and outgoing transfer activity, with rated FBS-to-FBS moves below.
Incoming Transfers
Texas StateOutgoing Transfers
Texas StateSeason schedule
Projected record is the highest-probability season total across every possible outcome. Upcoming rows show each matchup’s win chance, not one locked sequence of wins and losses.
Detailed football intelligence
The full team identity, offense, defense, and supporting evidence.
Team identity
Last season, Texas State tried to lean on the running game; the approach consistently kept the offense on schedule.
Why it matters
Neither offensive unit clearly carried the other, so first-down execution decides whether Texas State can stay on plan.
At a glance
The essential 2026 season outlook.
Profile high point
Big-play creation held the profile's highest percentile position.Profile low point
Big-play prevention held the lowest percentile position among the profile's strength measures.The offense's down-to-down consistency is what Texas State can trust most.
Why it matters
That unit is the most credible foundation for sustaining drives after poor field position or an early negative play; defensive control remains the first counter an opponent should test.
Texas State did not show one unit opponents could treat as an automatic target; the defense's control of ordinary downs is only the first place to look.
What matters
Texas State's lowest-rated unit still finished near the national middle last season, so opponents do not have an obvious weakness to attack.
Texas State's best path is to lean on the running game, then keep both the pass and run available because neither part of the offense has to carry the plan alone; extra possessions give that plan time to build.
What matters
Texas State's run-first structure played at a fast pace. Passing finished top-tier and rushing finished strong, without a clear split between them.
Inside the team
Open a section for the football detail and supporting numbers.
The down-to-down question that determines whether the offense can keep both the run and pass available.
Opponents have to win first down before Texas State can keep both answers available.
What matters
Neither the pass nor run separated enough to become the only priority, so first-down execution is the real target.
The pace, play selection, and methods this offense uses to stay on schedule.
Texas State played at a fast pace in 2025.
Why it matters
More possessions give Texas State's strengths additional chances to build, but they also leave more time to recover from mistakes.
Texas State's prior passing record was top-tier.
Why it matters
A repeatable pass game can let Texas State punish loaded boxes without relying on low-frequency deep completions.
Texas State's prior rushing record was strong.
Why it matters
A sustainable run game keeps Texas State's play action credible and limits obvious passing situations.
Texas State's explosive-play upside came with real defensive volatility.
Why it matters
That mix can produce fast scoring swings in either direction and makes missed tackles or coverage busts especially expensive.
How consistently the offense creates manageable situations and the defense prevents them.
Texas State's offense was more consistent down to down than its defense.
Why it matters
Texas State's success rate shows whether it can sustain drives and get stops without relying on sacks, turnovers, or isolated big plays.
Opponent-adjusted EPA identifies the run game as Texas State's stronger offensive unit.
Why it matters
Forcing longer passing situations is the clearest way to move the offense away from its stronger adjusted unit.
Where the defense can create pressure, control the run, and end drives.
Texas State's prior defense was middle-of-the-pack overall and strongest in run front.
Why it matters
Opponents can use efficient throws to stay out of obvious passing downs; Texas State needs its run front to create long-yardage without overloading the box before that plan settles in.
Texas State's available disruption measures ranked in a strong national range last season; a charted pressure rate is not available.
Why it matters
Sustained disruption can create negative plays and give Texas State a better chance to end drives before third down.
Texas State created disruption more consistently than it finished sacks.
Why it matters
Texas State's disruption can hurry an offense; sacks do more by erasing field position and ending passing downs.
Texas State's prior run-defense results were strong.
Why it matters
A dependable run front can let Texas State create obvious passing downs without committing extra bodies to the box.
