Week 5 · FinalW
vs. Texas State31–29+2 margin
Pregame 27–28
Game detailsSaturday Index
Loading team intelligenceBringing the latest verified football information into focus.
Saturday Index
Loading team intelligenceBringing the latest verified football information into focus.
Pac-12 · 2026 · Week 8
Photo: Spatms · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Cropped for display
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Hosting
Saturday, October 31 · 7:00 PM EDT
The season, taking shape
Final scores show San Diego State first. Oldest to newest.
vs. Texas StatePregame 27–28
Game details
at Oregon StatePregame 25–30
Game details
vs. Fresno StatePregame
Original full-season forecast
This forecast retains the original probabilities for the full schedule. It does not update with completed results or this week’s forecast.
2026 results
Current record, team efficiency, player production, and verified results from completed games.
Current record
3-53 wins · 5 lossesThrough 8 completed gamesLoading player usage…
Original season forecast
The original Pac-12 forecast, retained alongside current results.
Pac-12 projected standing
#4
4-3 projected · 4.1 expected conference wins · #4 of 8.
Preseason baseline
2025 percentiles retained as preseason context; current results and player production lead this page.
2025 FBS percentile scale · 50 is average
Incoming class
National and conference recruiting ranks, confirmed commitments, and the highest-ranked recruits in this class.
Top committed recruits
San Diego State2026 transfer movement
Incoming and outgoing transfer activity, with rated FBS-to-FBS moves below.
Incoming Transfers
San Diego StateOutgoing Transfers
San Diego StateSeason schedule
Completed games show final results. Upcoming games use this week’s forecast where available; later games retain their published season outlook.
Detailed football intelligence
The full team identity, offense, defense, and supporting evidence.
Team identity
Last season, San Diego State tried to lean on the running game; too many drives still went off schedule.
Why it matters
The run game was San Diego State's steadier way to stay ahead of the chains; opponents have to win early fits without handing away play action.
at Colorado StatePregame 30–27
Game detailsPregame comparisons use preserved published forecasts. Results include wins and losses.
At a glance
Current form leads the outlook.
2026 rates aggregate verified completed-game box scores. EPA is expected points added per play.
| Player | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Denegal | 82/150 | 896 | 7 | 5 |
| Stone Saunders | 31/48 | 450 | 2 | 2 |
| Draiden Trudeau | 8/14 | 66 | 1 | 1 |
| Player | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javion Kinnard | 91 | 526 | 5.8 | 3 |
| Lucky Sutton | 85 | 358 | 4.2 | 5 |
| Josiah Lucas | 42 | 169 | 4.0 | 2 |
| Player | REC | YDS | AVG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylon Hawkins | 18 | 322 | 17.9 | 2 |
| Nathan Acevedo | 21 | 235 | 11.2 | 2 |
| Jordan Napier | 15 | 171 | 11.4 | 2 |
| Player | TOT | SOLO | TFL | SACK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sione Hala | 74 | 46 | 2.5 | 2 |
| Tano Letuli | 63 | 37 | 2 | 1 |
| Josh Hunter | 60 | 37 | 0.5 | 0 |
Saturday, October 24 · Canvas Stadium
Saturday, October 17 · Snapdragon Stadium
Saturday, October 10 · Reser Stadium
Profile high point
Big-play prevention held the profile's highest percentile position.Profile low point
Passing held the lowest percentile position among the profile's strength measures.
The defense's control of ordinary downs is what San Diego State can trust most.
Why it matters
That unit is the most credible foundation for making opponents string together clean drives; passing efficiency remains the first counter an opponent should test.
The passing game is San Diego State's biggest concern, and opponents can test it immediately.
Why it matters
Opponents can crowd early downs and make the pass game carry obvious throwing situations; defensive control has to keep that stress from setting the game plan.
San Diego State is at its best when it can use the running game to control early downs and finish drives; an average pace puts more weight on winning ordinary downs.
What matters
San Diego State's run-heavy structure played at a balanced pace. The run game finished strong, while the pass game finished bottom-tier.
Inside the team
Open a section for the football detail and supporting numbers.
The down-to-down question that determines whether the offense can keep both the run and pass available.
Opponents have to keep San Diego State's run game from turning first down into second-and-manageable.
What matters
Early run success keeps play action alive and prevents the defense from dictating obvious passing downs.
The pace, play selection, and methods this offense uses to stay on schedule.
San Diego State played at a balanced pace in 2025.
Why it matters
At that pace, San Diego State cannot count on extra possessions or expect to shorten the game.
San Diego State's prior passing record was bottom-tier.
Why it matters
San Diego State's offense needs protection, field position, or explosive variance when ordinary dropbacks do not create enough value.
San Diego State's prior rushing record was strong.
Why it matters
A sustainable run game keeps San Diego State's play action credible and limits obvious passing situations.
San Diego State was better at preventing explosive plays than creating them.
Why it matters
The defense can keep a game on schedule, but the offense may need longer drives and more third-down conversions to separate.
How consistently the offense creates manageable situations and the defense prevents them.
San Diego State's defense was more consistent down to down than its offense.
Why it matters
San Diego State's success rate shows whether it can sustain drives and get stops without relying on sacks, turnovers, or isolated big plays.
Opponent-adjusted EPA identifies the run game as San Diego State's stronger offensive unit.
Why it matters
Forcing longer passing situations is the clearest way to move the offense away from its stronger adjusted unit.
Where the defense can create pressure, control the run, and end drives.
San Diego State's prior defense was strong overall and strongest in pass defense.
What matters
Pass defense finished top-tier, while disruption finished weak; the latter is the first place an offense should test.
San Diego State's available disruption measures ranked in the lower national range last season; a charted pressure rate is not available.
San Diego State's sack production outpaced its broader disruption record.
Why it matters
San Diego State's disruption can hurry an offense; sacks do more by erasing field position and ending passing downs.
San Diego State's prior run-defense results were above-average.
Why it matters
If San Diego State's front cannot control early downs, opponents can keep every offensive option open and protect their passing game.
