Week 4 · FinalL
vs. New Mexico18–42-24 margin
Pregame 20–31
Game detailsSaturday Index
Loading team intelligenceBringing the latest verified football information into focus.
Saturday Index
Loading team intelligenceBringing the latest verified football information into focus.
Conference USA · 2026 · Week 8
Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · Cropped for display
Up next · Week 9
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Hosting
Wednesday, October 28 · Time TBA
The season, taking shape
Final scores show New Mexico State first. Oldest to newest.
vs. New MexicoPregame 20–31
Game details
vs. Western KentuckyPregame 26–28
Game details
at Florida InternationalOriginal full-season forecast
This forecast retains the original probabilities for the full schedule. It does not update with completed results or this week’s forecast.
2026 results
Current record, team efficiency, player production, and verified results from completed games.
Current record
3-43 wins · 4 lossesThrough 7 completed gamesLoading player usage…
Original season forecast
The original Conference USA forecast, retained alongside current results.
Conference USA projected standing
#9
3-5 projected · 2.7 expected conference wins · #9 of 10.
Preseason baseline
2025 percentiles retained as preseason context; current results and player production lead this page.
2025 FBS percentile scale · 50 is average
Incoming class
National and conference recruiting ranks, confirmed commitments, and the highest-ranked recruits in this class.
Top committed recruits
New Mexico State2026 transfer movement
Incoming and outgoing transfer activity, with rated FBS-to-FBS moves below.
Incoming Transfers
New Mexico StateOutgoing Transfers
New Mexico StateSeason schedule
Completed games show final results. Upcoming games use this week’s forecast where available; later games retain their published season outlook.
Detailed football intelligence
The full team identity, offense, defense, and supporting evidence.
Team identity
Last season, New Mexico State tried to lean on the passing game; it rarely provided an easy foundation.
Why it matters
The passing game was New Mexico State's less difficult offensive option, but it did not provide a dependable way to stay ahead of the chains; the offense must prove that rhythm before opponents have to widen their structure.
at Sam HoustonPregame comparison unavailable
Game detailsPregame comparisons use preserved published forecasts. Results include wins and losses.
At a glance
Current form leads the outlook.
2026 rates aggregate verified completed-game box scores. EPA is expected points added per play.
| Player | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Hedden | 65/124 | 906 | 5 | 6 |
| Adam Damante | 43/70 | 449 | 2 | 2 |
| Player | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Jones | 92 | 599 | 6.5 | 3 |
| Terrell Washington Jr. | 39 | 163 | 4.2 | 2 |
| Jalen Brown | 5 | 68 | 13.6 | 0 |
| Player | REC | YDS | AVG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler King | 20 | 286 | 14.3 | 3 |
| Josiah Thomas | 15 | 203 | 13.5 | 0 |
| AJ Williams III | 9 | 143 | 15.9 | 0 |
| Player | TOT | SOLO | TFL | SACK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Sessions | 51 | 34 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Tory Gethers | 40 | 19 | 3 | 1 |
| Sone Aupiu | 28 | 16 | 5.5 | 2.5 |
Wednesday, October 21 · Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
Wednesday, October 7 · Pitbull Stadium
Thursday, October 1 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
Profile high point
Big-play prevention held the profile's highest percentile position.Profile low point
The run game held the lowest percentile position among the profile's strength measures.
Big-play creation is New Mexico State's best starting point, though the run game keeps it from carrying the plan alone.
Why it matters
The offense has its best route to changing field position without requiring flawless drive efficiency; rushing structure remains the first counter an opponent should test.
The run game is New Mexico State's biggest concern, and opponents can test it immediately.
What matters
New Mexico State's rushing structure ranked near the bottom nationally last season.
For New Mexico State, the cleanest script is to use the passing game to stay on schedule and finish drives; extra possessions give that plan time to build.
What matters
New Mexico State's pass-first structure played at a fast pace. The pass game finished weak, while the run game finished bottom-tier.
Inside the team
Open a section for the football detail and supporting numbers.
The down-to-down question that determines whether the offense can keep both the run and pass available.
Before defenses have to adjust, New Mexico State must prove routine throws can keep first down on schedule.
What matters
Last season's passing results did not establish a dependable way to stay out of long-yardage.
The pace, play selection, and methods this offense uses to stay on schedule.
New Mexico State played at a fast pace in 2025.
Why it matters
More possessions give New Mexico State's strengths additional chances to build, but they also leave more time to recover from mistakes.
New Mexico State's prior passing record was weak.
Why it matters
New Mexico State's offense needs protection, field position, or explosive variance when ordinary dropbacks do not create enough value.
New Mexico State's prior rushing record was bottom-tier.
Why it matters
When New Mexico State's run game cannot stay on schedule, protection and passing-down execution carry more of the offense.
New Mexico State's explosive-play results were mixed rather than a defining edge.
Why it matters
A big play can still flip a possession, but last season's results do not make explosiveness something this team can rely on.
How consistently the offense creates manageable situations and the defense prevents them.
New Mexico State's defense was more consistent down to down than its offense.
Why it matters
New Mexico State's success rate shows whether it can sustain drives and get stops without relying on sacks, turnovers, or isolated big plays.
New Mexico State's opponent-adjusted passing and rushing value were closely matched.
Why it matters
When the split is narrow, early-down execution matters more than steering the offense toward one obvious weakness.
Where the defense can create pressure, control the run, and end drives.
New Mexico State's prior defense was above-average overall and strongest in run front.
Why it matters
Opponents can use efficient throws to stay out of obvious passing downs; New Mexico State needs its run front to create long-yardage without overloading the box before that plan settles in.
New Mexico State's available disruption measures ranked in the lower national range last season; a charted pressure rate is not available.
New Mexico State created disruption more consistently than it finished sacks.
Why it matters
New Mexico State's disruption can hurry an offense; sacks do more by erasing field position and ending passing downs.
Why it matters
A dependable run front can let New Mexico State create obvious passing downs without committing extra bodies to the box.
