Week 2Away
at Hawai'i
Hawai'i
Saturday, September 12 · Time TBA- Venue
- Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
- Win probability
- 19%
Saturday Index
Loading team intelligenceBringing the latest verified football information into focus.
Saturday Index
Loading team intelligenceBringing the latest verified football information into focus.
Conference USA · 2026 · Week 1
Current record, next game, remaining schedule, and program outlook for the Aggies.
Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · Cropped for display
2026 season probabilities
The highlighted finish is the single most likely record—not a fixed list of game results.
2026 results
Current record, team efficiency, player production, and verified results from completed games.
Current record
0-10 wins · 1 lossThrough 1 completed gameSeason outlook
Opponent, kickoff, venue, and the latest game outlook.
at Hawai'i
Projected 2026 finish
Where New Mexico State is projected to finish in the Conference USA.
Conference USA projected standing
#9
3-5 projected · 2.7 expected conference wins · #9 of 10.
Preseason baseline
2025 percentiles retained as preseason context; current results and player production lead this page.
2025 FBS percentile scale · 50 is average
Incoming class
National and conference recruiting ranks, confirmed commitments, and the highest-ranked recruits in this class.
Top committed recruits
New Mexico State2026 transfer movement
Incoming and outgoing transfer activity, with rated FBS-to-FBS moves below.
Incoming Transfers
New Mexico StateOutgoing Transfers
New Mexico StateSeason schedule
Projected record is the highest-probability season total across every possible outcome. Upcoming rows show each matchup’s win chance, not one locked sequence of wins and losses.
Detailed football intelligence
The full team identity, offense, defense, and supporting evidence.
Team identity
Last season, New Mexico State tried to lean on the passing game; it rarely provided an easy foundation.
Why it matters
The passing game was New Mexico State's less difficult offensive option, but it did not provide a dependable way to stay ahead of the chains; the offense must prove that rhythm before opponents have to widen their structure.
At a glance
Current form leads the outlook.
2026 rates aggregate verified completed-game box scores. EPA is expected points added per play.
| Player | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Hedden | 26/42 | 272 | 2 | 1 |
| Player | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Jones | 11 | 28 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Dijon Stanley | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jalen Brown | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Player | REC | YDS | AVG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brodrick Malone | 6 | 96 | 16.0 | 1 |
| Tyler King | 7 | 78 | 11.1 | 1 |
| TJ Pride | 4 | 33 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Player | TOT | SOLO | TFL | SACK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sone Aupiu | 8 | 2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| Gabe Peterson | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 |
| Nicolas Sessions | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Saturday, August 29 · Doak Campbell Stadium
Profile high point
Big-play prevention held the profile's highest percentile position.Profile low point
The run game held the lowest percentile position among the profile's strength measures.Big-play creation is New Mexico State's best starting point, though the run game keeps it from carrying the plan alone.
Why it matters
The offense has its best route to changing field position without requiring flawless drive efficiency; rushing structure remains the first counter an opponent should test.
The run game is New Mexico State's biggest concern, and opponents can test it immediately.
What matters
New Mexico State's rushing structure ranked near the bottom nationally last season.
For New Mexico State, the cleanest script is to use the passing game to stay on schedule and finish drives; extra possessions give that plan time to build.
What matters
New Mexico State's pass-first structure played at a fast pace. The pass game finished weak, while the run game finished bottom-tier.
Inside the team
Open a section for the football detail and supporting numbers.
The down-to-down question that determines whether the offense can keep both the run and pass available.
Before defenses have to adjust, New Mexico State must prove routine throws can keep first down on schedule.
What matters
Last season's passing results did not establish a dependable way to stay out of long-yardage.
The pace, play selection, and methods this offense uses to stay on schedule.
New Mexico State played at a fast pace in 2025.
Why it matters
More possessions give New Mexico State's strengths additional chances to build, but they also leave more time to recover from mistakes.
New Mexico State's prior passing record was weak.
Why it matters
New Mexico State's offense needs protection, field position, or explosive variance when ordinary dropbacks do not create enough value.
New Mexico State's prior rushing record was bottom-tier.
Why it matters
When New Mexico State's run game cannot stay on schedule, protection and passing-down execution carry more of the offense.
New Mexico State's explosive-play results were mixed rather than a defining edge.
Why it matters
A big play can still flip a possession, but last season's results do not make explosiveness something this team can rely on.
How consistently the offense creates manageable situations and the defense prevents them.
New Mexico State's defense was more consistent down to down than its offense.
Why it matters
New Mexico State's success rate shows whether it can sustain drives and get stops without relying on sacks, turnovers, or isolated big plays.
New Mexico State's opponent-adjusted passing and rushing value were closely matched.
Why it matters
When the split is narrow, early-down execution matters more than steering the offense toward one obvious weakness.
Where the defense can create pressure, control the run, and end drives.
New Mexico State's prior defense was above-average overall and strongest in run front.
Why it matters
Opponents can use efficient throws to stay out of obvious passing downs; New Mexico State needs its run front to create long-yardage without overloading the box before that plan settles in.
New Mexico State's available disruption measures ranked in the lower national range last season; a charted pressure rate is not available.
New Mexico State created disruption more consistently than it finished sacks.
Why it matters
New Mexico State's disruption can hurry an offense; sacks do more by erasing field position and ending passing downs.
Why it matters
A dependable run front can let New Mexico State create obvious passing downs without committing extra bodies to the box.
