Duke

Diaz’s staff provides a coherent starting point. Jonathan Brewer remains offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach, Jonathan Patke remains defensive coordinator and linebackers coach, and Gabe Infante oversees special teams and the defensive line. The most urgent decision belongs to Brewer. AP reported that Darian Mensah reversed an announced return after leading Duke to the ACC title and that Duke sued in January over a two-season NIL agreement; Mensah is not on the current roster. Duke has not publicly named a successor. Veteran transfers Walker Eget and Ari Patu join Blaine Hipa and freshman Terry Walker III in a competition that must identify not merely the oldest option, but the player best able to command the offense while new receiving roles take shape.

Whoever wins the job will have credible support at running back, tight end and center. Sophomore Nate Sheppard, one of Duke’s three representatives at ACC Kickoff, was placed on Phil Steele’s preseason All-ACC second team and offers the offense an established skill-position centerpiece. Redshirt senior Jeremiah Hasley also represented Duke at the event and received first-team preseason All-ACC recognition from Phil Steele. His experience and production in the ACC championship game’s red zone make him a useful target between the numbers and near the goal line. Graduate center Matt Craycraft, listed at 6-foot-3 and 305 pounds and selected to Phil Steele’s third team, can help organize protections and communication. The rest of the line combination and receiver rotation have not been publicly settled, keeping cohesion central to the offense’s ceiling.

Duke did not wait until summer to begin the rebuild. Eleven early-enrollee signees and 13 transfers participated in spring, with additions at quarterback, offensive line, receiver, running back and tight end and across all three levels of the defense. That gave the staff time to teach its systems and evaluate combinations, but the volume of turnover carries a cost: options are not the same as answers. Diaz and his coordinators must convert broad competition into defined responsibilities, especially in rooms where communication matters snap after snap. The retained systems can shorten that process; they cannot eliminate it.

Linebacker Luke Mergott is the defense’s clearest returning reference point. He entered 2026 on the Lott IMPACT Trophy watch list after recording at least 85 tackles in 2025 and sealing both the ACC title game and Sun Bowl with late interceptions. Around him, Patke is rebuilding the structure. Defensive tackles Owen Wafle and Dakota Quiñonez arrived for spring, as did early-enrollee freshmen Ayden Cain and Chadwicke Cannon Jr., expanding a rotation whose dependable disruptors have not yet emerged publicly. At cornerback, spring participants Dylan Flowers, Kyon Loud and Evan Smith joined a group that retains younger defensive backs Landan Callahan and Kolbe Harmon. Those choices matter together: if the front cannot create disruption consistently, a secondary with an unconfirmed starting combination will face greater strain.

Punter Kade Reynoldson gives Duke one clearly established special-teams advantage. He earned Phil Steele preseason second-team All-America recognition after averaging 44.61 yards in 2025, putting 21 of 44 punts inside the 20 with only two touchbacks. For a team introducing a quarterback and integrating new defensive pieces, that field-position work can reduce the number of long fields the offense must navigate and give the defense more margin. Duke’s placekicking, kickoff and return responsibilities have not been publicly confirmed, so the certainty belongs to Reynoldson and the punting operation.

There is little room for a slow start. Duke opens at home against 2025 CFP participant Tulane, travels to nine-win Illinois in Week 2 and begins ACC play at home against Stanford before an October 3 open date. That sequence puts immediate pressure on the quarterback decision and on rebuilt units to communicate cleanly under game conditions. September will not decide every question, but it can shape the terms of the season: early instability would make conference contention harder, while competent play around the returning anchors could give the new combinations time to mature.

The closing stretch compounds the pressure. Duke visits NC State and 2025 national runner-up Miami on consecutive November weekends, then hosts Clemson on a Friday before finishing at nine-win Wake Forest. All four opponents enter off winning seasons, creating a sustained test of depth and durability. Duke’s title gives Diaz a standard, not a shortcut. To stay in the ACC race, the Blue Devils need a quarterback who can operate Brewer’s system, an offensive supporting cast that can settle around Sheppard, Hasley and Craycraft, and a defense that can develop reliable answers around Mergott. The returning anchors are substantial; whether they are enough depends on how quickly the unsettled rooms become functional units.

Win probability

81%