Miami

Pregame comparisons use preserved published forecasts. Results include wins and losses.

2026 rates aggregate verified completed-game box scores. EPA is expected points added per play.

Mensah makes quarterback less of a search than an integration project. The Duke transfer arrived after passing for 3,973 yards and 34 touchdowns in 2025. After his first spring practice, Cristobal praised his command, accuracy and pocket presence. Dawson therefore has a proven veteran distributor for a third consecutive season, but Mensah must synchronize with a reshaped supporting cast. Sophomore Malachi Toney gives him an established centerpiece after earning first-team Walter Camp preseason All-America recognition from the ACC. Joshua Moore, Daylyn Upshaw and transfers are among the candidates to build the rotation around Toney; Moore returned to make catches after being limited early in spring, though his August workload was not confirmed.

Fletcher can steady the offense while those connections develop. He led Miami with 1,192 rushing yards in 2025 and described his spring role as helping freshmen and transfers learn the program standard. His production and leadership matter because the line in front of him is being reconstructed. Four starters departed, leaving offensive line coach Alex Mirabal to build around returners Matt McCoy, Samson Okunlola and Ryan Rodriguez. Barry Jackson reported that McCoy’s spring work at tackle was partly prompted by Okunlola’s injury and that McCoy’s eventual position remained unsettled.

The competition up front carries consequences for nearly every offensive strength. Protection will determine how comfortably Mensah can operate Dawson’s passing game, while movement in the running game will shape how heavily Miami can lean on Fletcher. Freshman tackle Jackson Cantwell received expanded spring-game work, according to Cristobal, but Mirabal emphasized the technical adjustment required against college speed and power. Cantwell could work into the two-deep, but Miami had not declared him a starter. The final alignment will depend on health and the development of younger linemen, making this the offense’s most consequential position room.

Hetherman faces his own reconstruction along the defensive front. First-round edge rushers Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor are gone after defining Miami’s 2025 pass rush. Georgia transfer Damon Wilson II has been identified by Barry Jackson as a pivotal replacement, while tackles Jarquez Carter and Keona Davis joined the spring work. Wilson does not need to reproduce two departed stars by himself, but Miami must find a credible way to create pressure without them. That will influence how aggressively Hetherman can call games and how much strain falls on the secondary.

There is useful experience behind the front. Toure provides veteran leadership at linebacker, and Miami lists returning defenders Xavier Lucas, Zechariah Poyser, Bryce Fitzgerald, Damari Brown, Justin Scott and Ahmad Moten Sr. across the three levels. The secondary’s defining issue is deployment. Jackson described Boston College transfer Omar Thornton and Fitzgerald as movable pieces between safety and nickel. Their versatility gives Hetherman options as Miami replaces Keionte Scott, although settling those roles will be important for communication and coverage continuity.

The schedule will test those rebuilt units immediately. Miami opens with a cross-country trip to Stanford and plays three of its first five games on the road, including visits to Wake Forest and Clemson. That stretch offers little insulation for a developing offensive line or a reworked pass rush. An open week before Florida State visits Hard Rock Stadium gives Miami additional preparation time for the rivalry game, while the November trip to Notre Dame supplies another major road test. The Hurricanes have enough established skill talent and defensive experience to avoid treating 2026 as a conventional rebuild. Whether they can sustain their breakthrough will come down to Cristobal’s signature concern: how quickly Miami becomes dependable at the line of scrimmage.

Final · team–opponent

W 77–7