Week 4 · FinalW
at Western Michigan32–7+25 margin
Pregame 28–23
Game detailsSaturday Index
Loading team intelligenceBringing the latest verified football information into focus.
Saturday Index
Loading team intelligenceBringing the latest verified football information into focus.
Pac-12 · 2026 · Week 8
Photo: Iamneven · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Cropped for display
Up next · Week 9
Home
Hosting
Saturday, October 31 · 10:00 PM EDT
The season, taking shape
Final scores show Boise State first. Oldest to newest.
at Western MichiganPregame 28–23
Game details
vs. Utah StatePregame 33–18
Game details
at Fresno StatePregame
Original full-season forecast
This forecast retains the original probabilities for the full schedule. It does not update with completed results or this week’s forecast.
2026 results
Current record, team efficiency, player production, and verified results from completed games.
Current record
6-16 wins · 1 lossThrough 7 completed gamesLoading player usage…
Original season forecast
The original Pac-12 forecast, retained alongside current results.
Pac-12 projected standing
#1
5-2 projected · 5.2 expected conference wins · conference favorite.
Preseason baseline
2025 percentiles retained as preseason context; current results and player production lead this page.
2025 FBS percentile scale · 50 is average
Incoming class
National and conference recruiting ranks, confirmed commitments, and the highest-ranked recruits in this class.
Top committed recruits
Boise State2026 transfer movement
Incoming and outgoing transfer activity, with rated FBS-to-FBS moves below.
Incoming Transfers
Boise StateOutgoing Transfers
Boise StateSeason schedule
Completed games show final results. Upcoming games use this week’s forecast where available; later games retain their published season outlook.
Detailed football intelligence
The full team identity, offense, defense, and supporting evidence.
Team identity
Last season, Boise State tried to lean on the running game; the approach gave the offense a dependable starting point.
Why it matters
The run game was Boise State's steadier way to stay ahead of the chains; opponents have to win early fits without handing away play action.
at Washington StatePregame 31–21
Game detailsPregame comparisons use preserved published forecasts. Results include wins and losses.
At a glance
Current form leads the outlook.
2026 rates aggregate verified completed-game box scores. EPA is expected points added per play.
| Player | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maddux Madsen | 124/189 | 1445 | 14 | 0 |
| Player | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Riley | 140 | 963 | 6.9 | 8 |
| Sire Gaines | 75 | 418 | 5.6 | 4 |
| Maddux Madsen | 33 | 144 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Player | REC | YDS | AVG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasean Jones | 28 | 428 | 15.3 | 1 |
| Matt Wagner | 23 | 261 | 11.3 | 4 |
| Akeem Wright | 13 | 205 | 15.8 | 1 |
| Player | TOT | SOLO | TFL | SACK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boen Phelps | 41 | 20 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Travis Anderson | 30 | 12 | 1 | 0 |
| Derek Ganter Jr. | 28 | 20 | 1 | 0 |
Saturday, October 24 · Gesa Field
Saturday, October 10 · Valley Children's Stadium
Saturday, October 3 · Albertsons Stadium
Profile high point
Down-to-down defense held the profile's highest percentile position.Profile low point
Big-play prevention held the lowest percentile position among the profile's strength measures.
Boise State can lean on the defense's control of ordinary downs when a drive slips off schedule, but the passing game still needs support.
Why it matters
That unit is the most credible foundation for making opponents string together clean drives; passing efficiency remains the first counter an opponent should test.
Boise State did not show one unit opponents could treat as an automatic target; the passing game is only the first place to look.
What matters
Boise State's lowest-rated unit still finished near the national middle last season, so opponents do not have an obvious weakness to attack.
Boise State's best path is to use the running game to control early downs and finish drives; extra possessions give that plan time to build.
What matters
Boise State's run-leaning structure played at a fast pace. The run game finished above-average, while the pass game finished middle-of-the-pack.
Inside the team
Open a section for the football detail and supporting numbers.
The down-to-down question that determines whether the offense can keep both the run and pass available.
Opponents have to keep Boise State's run game from turning first down into second-and-manageable.
What matters
Early run success keeps play action alive and prevents the defense from dictating obvious passing downs.
The pace, play selection, and methods this offense uses to stay on schedule.
Boise State played at a fast pace in 2025.
Why it matters
More possessions give Boise State's strengths additional chances to build, but they also leave more time to recover from mistakes.
Boise State's prior passing record was middle-of-the-pack.
Why it matters
Boise State's offense needs protection, field position, or explosive variance when ordinary dropbacks do not create enough value.
Boise State's prior rushing record was above-average.
Why it matters
When Boise State's run game cannot stay on schedule, protection and passing-down execution carry more of the offense.
Boise State's explosive-play upside came with real defensive volatility.
Why it matters
That mix can produce fast scoring swings in either direction and makes missed tackles or coverage busts especially expensive.
How consistently the offense creates manageable situations and the defense prevents them.
Boise State's defense was more consistent down to down than its offense.
Why it matters
Boise State's success rate shows whether it can sustain drives and get stops without relying on sacks, turnovers, or isolated big plays.
Boise State's opponent-adjusted passing and rushing value were closely matched.
Why it matters
When the split is narrow, early-down execution matters more than steering the offense toward one obvious weakness.
Where the defense can create pressure, control the run, and end drives.
Boise State's prior defense was strong overall and strongest in pass defense.
What matters
Pass defense finished top-tier, while run front finished below-average; the latter is the first place an offense should test.
Boise State's available disruption measures ranked in a strong national range last season; a charted pressure rate is not available.
Why it matters
Sustained disruption can create negative plays and give Boise State a better chance to end drives before third down.
Boise State created disruption more consistently than it finished sacks.
Why it matters
Boise State's disruption can hurry an offense; sacks do more by erasing field position and ending passing downs.
Boise State's prior run-defense results were below-average.
Why it matters
If Boise State's front cannot control early downs, opponents can keep every offensive option open and protect their passing game.
