Edition assembled Nov 11, 12:24 PM EST

Source dates

Ratings input: Nov 9, 7:39 PM EST
Game forecasts: Nov 9, 7:44 PM EST
Results captured: Nov 11, 7:37 AM EST
CFP captured: Nov 10, 10:01 PM EST
Availability adjustment: Nov 11, 12:05 PM EST

2026 season

The conference races

Who is most likely to win each league? Compare title chances, remaining-season wins and the road to the playoff.

Saved outlook · Through Week 10 + 3 Week 11 finals200,000 simulations

Simulation source dates

Results Nov 11, 7:37 AM EST

Baseline game forecasts: Nov 9, 7:44 PM EST.

Availability adjustment: Nov 11, 12:05 PM EST.

Games have started since this outlook was made. Later results are not included; the next simulation update is pending.

ACC title race

17 teams

Miami8–1 · 3 left
Expected wins
10.7
Win out
75.4%
Conference title
75.3%
Make CFP
97.7%
Wake Forest8–1 · 3 left
Expected wins
9.8
Win out
21.8%
Conference title
14.2%
Make CFP
26.4%
SMU7–2 · 3 left
Expected wins
8.7
Win out
9.1%
Conference title
7.2%
Make CFP
9.5%
Louisville6–3 · 3 left
Expected wins
7.9
Win out
26.2%
Conference title
2.3%
Make CFP
2.3%
Duke7–2 · 3 left
Expected wins
8.2
Win out
4.4%
Conference title
0.9%
Make CFP
1.1%
Clemson6–3 · 3 left
Expected wins
7.5
Win out
10.4%
Conference title
<0.1%
Make CFP
0.3%
Boston College4–5 · 3 left
Expected wins
4.6
Win out
<0.1%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
California3–6 · 3 left
Expected wins
4.2
Win out
5.0%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Florida State4–5 · 3 left
Expected wins
5.6
Win out
14.0%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Georgia Tech2–7 · 3 left
Expected wins
2.4
Win out
0.2%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
NC State4–5 · 3 left
Expected wins
5.2
Win out
5.5%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
North Carolina5–4 · 3 left
Expected wins
6.6
Win out
14.7%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Pittsburgh6–3 · 3 left
Expected wins
7.7
Win out
14.9%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Stanford4–5 · 3 left
Expected wins
4.5
Win out
0.4%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Syracuse4–5 · 3 left
Expected wins
4.9
Win out
1.3%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Virginia4–5 · 3 left
Expected wins
5.6
Win out
14.1%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%
Virginia Tech6–3 · 3 left
Expected wins
7.6
Win out
4.5%
Conference title
0.0%
Make CFP
0.0%

Expected wins include completed wins. Win out covers remaining regular-season games before CFP selection on Dec. 6; conference-title games and the playoff are excluded from both figures.

About these probabilities

Completed results through week 10 + 3 week 11 finals are fixed. One set of 200,000 simulated seasons supplies the available expected-win, win-out, conference-title and CFP probabilities. Conference championships are simulated before CFP selection.

Conference tiebreakers with unavailable future inputs use model estimates. CFP selection is a Saturday Index estimate, separate from the committee’s current rankings. The Group of Six automatic qualifier need not win its conference; Notre Dame’s top-12 protection is included.

See the CFP rankings and playoff bracket →

Teams are ordered by chance to win the conference championship, not current standings.

Saturday Index

Getting this view ready

Bringing the latest verified football information into focus.