Analysis
Notre Dame at BYU: Can the Cougars stop Jonaz Walton?
The Irish have a new rushing headline and an efficient quarterback. BYU’s chance in Provo starts with forcing both to earn their yards—and giving Bear Bachmeier room to answer.
Saturday, October 17 · 7:30 p.m. ET · LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo · No. 2 Notre Dame (6–0) at No. 8 BYU (5–0).
Jonaz Walton needed 13 carries to take over Notre Dame’s win over Stanford. BYU’s first assignment is to keep him from doing the same thing to the night in Provo. Its second is harder: defend the run without making life easier for CJ Carr and a passing attack that has been exceptionally careful with the ball.
BYU must limit Walton’s long runs
Walton’s touchdowns against Stanford covered 97 and 40 yards. He finished with 181 rushing yards and a school true-freshman record. Those runs are the reason BYU cannot evaluate a possession only by how the first few snaps look. One missed fit or failed tackle can undo a series of otherwise sound defense.
The Cougars have allowed 2.93 yards per rush across five games. Notre Dame has averaged 5.06 across six. Walton is also part of a deeper group: he has 409 rushing yards, Nolan James Jr. 335 and Aneyas Williams 294. BYU needs a plan that holds up through different backs and repeated possessions, not just a response to the player who made last weekend’s highlights.
CJ Carr can punish extra attention to the run
Carr has completed 102 of 144 passes for 1,378 yards, 16 touchdowns and one interception. Jordan Faison has 387 receiving yards and four touchdowns; Micah Gilbert has 378 yards and two. The Irish have enough established passing production that BYU cannot treat a successful run stop as permission to relax in coverage.
The choice for the Cougars is how much help to commit near the line. If the front can hold its ground without an extra defender, BYU can preserve more coverage support against Faison and Gilbert. If Walton or the other backs start gaining five and six yards without resistance, the Irish can make the defense choose which part of the offense gets the better matchup.
Tausili Akana’s 3.5 sacks make him a player to watch when BYU does force an obvious passing situation. The Cougars do not need constant disruption to affect Carr. A timely sack can turn a promising possession into a punt and keep Notre Dame from dictating the game with its balance.
BYU needs Bachmeier’s passing and running
Bear Bachmeier has 1,033 passing yards, eight touchdown passes and one interception. He also has 239 net rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns. Notre Dame must account for the quarterback after the initial handoff decision and after a pass play starts to break down. An overaggressive rush can solve one problem while creating another.
BYU has averaged 6.02 yards per rush, but Notre Dame has allowed only 2.10. LJ Martin’s 344 rushing yards give the Cougars another proven ball carrier. If the Irish can contain that combination without repeatedly adding a safety, Bachmeier will face a more crowded passing picture.
Legend Glasker is the target who can change that picture quickly: 19 catches, 378 yards and three touchdowns. Kyler Kasper has three receiving scores, and Walker Lyons adds another outlet. BYU should not need a string of low-percentage throws to threaten the Irish. It needs its run and quarterback movement to make those receivers harder to account for.
What to watch in the first quarter
- The first defender to meet Notre Dame’s backs: does BYU finish the tackle, or allow a modest gain to become an explosive play?
- Notre Dame’s pursuit of Bachmeier: containing him matters as much as reaching him.
- BYU’s early-down rushing efficiency. Repeated third-and-long would let the Irish rush without respecting the full offense.
The Saturday Index read
Notre Dame has more ways to sustain a possession, which is why the Irish get the preference. BYU’s best chance is to make that advantage work slowly: prevent the long touchdown, win a few critical third downs and let Bachmeier’s dual threat keep the home offense moving. A competitive fourth quarter becomes much more plausible if Notre Dame has to earn every scoring drive.
Our October 12 projection favors Notre Dame by 12.4 points. It is a forecast, not an official selection. BYU’s unbeaten record and run defense deserve attention alongside that margin.
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