Ohio State–Texas, one year later

Texas gained 336 yards at Ohio State last August. The Buckeyes finished with 203. Texas still lost 14–7.

The box score explains why. The Longhorns converted one of five fourth-down attempts, came away empty on both red-zone trips and threw the game’s only interception. Ohio State’s offense spent most of the afternoon working within narrow margins, then created the one explosive play it needed: Julian Sayin’s 40-yard touchdown pass to Carnell Tate early in the fourth quarter.

That game introduced Sayin and Arch Manning as full-time starters. Saturday’s rematch in Austin will ask how much has changed around them.

No. 1 Ohio State and No. 4 Texas meet at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC. It is their third meeting in as many seasons, following Ohio State’s 28–14 win in the January 2025 College Football Playoff semifinal and last season’s opener in Columbus. Ohio State leads the series 3–2. Four of the five meetings have been decided by one score.

Both teams opened 2026 by overwhelming an overmatched opponent. Ohio State beat Ball State 56–3 and gained 671 yards. Texas beat Texas State 59–7, scored on eight of nine possessions and forced three turnovers. Those games revealed personnel and usage more than they established either team’s level. This weekend supplies the real comparison.

Ohio State can make Texas defend every receiver

Sayin completed 21 of 25 passes for 320 yards and three touchdowns against Ball State. His first scoring throw traveled 48 yards to Jeremiah Smith. Before halftime, he moved Ohio State 90 yards in 65 seconds and found Smith again from three yards out.

Smith finished the first half with eight catches for 151 yards and two scores, then watched the second half. Ryan Day said Ohio State built the plan with Smith at the front of its thinking, which is obvious and still difficult to solve. The more useful Week 1 development was what happened when the ball went elsewhere.

Devin McCuin caught six passes for 97 yards and a touchdown. Nate Roberts worked between the numbers. Brandon Inniss and the running backs gave Sayin underneath answers. Ohio State can place Smith outside and demand safety help, then use McCuin on the opposite side or attack the space vacated by the extra defender. If Texas tries to preserve its two-high structure, Smith gets more one-on-one access. If it rolls coverage toward him, Sayin should know where the leverage has moved before the snap.

Texas has enough talent in the secondary to resist easy choices. Graceson Littleton started at corner and produced six tackles in the opener. Jelani McDonald made eight, including one for loss. Kade Phillips and Kobe Black give the Longhorns more size and pedigree on the back end. Their assignment is less about erasing Smith than controlling the consequences of the attention he commands.

The first question is whether Texas can disrupt Ohio State’s timing without sending a fifth rusher. Colin Simmons, Maraad Watson, Hero Kanu and Lance Jackson formed the starting defensive front against Texas State. Kanu had 1.5 tackles for loss, while Watson produced a strip-sack. Consistent pressure from that group would allow the Longhorns to change the picture after the snap and keep help available for Smith.

If Sayin is comfortable, the matchup expands quickly. He completed 77 percent of his passes in 2025, threw for 3,610 yards and finished fourth in Heisman Trophy voting. Ball State did not force him to live on difficult downs, but it did show the speed of Ohio State’s operation when his first answer is available. Texas has to make him reset the play after the snap.

Texas gave Manning more answers

Manning’s 2025 opener was defined by what Texas could not finish. The Longhorns ran for 166 yards, reached the Ohio State 1-yard line in the third quarter and left without a point. Their final possession crossed midfield before another fourth-down stop ended the game. Manning completed 17 of 30 passes for 170 yards, one touchdown and one interception.

Texas did not spend the offseason waiting for the same receiver group to improve. Cam Coleman arrived from Auburn and immediately caught three passes for 70 yards and two touchdowns in the 2026 opener. Ryan Wingo added seven catches for 121 yards and a score. Hollywood Smothers, the NC State transfer, ran for 70 yards on 10 carries and caught two touchdown passes.

That distribution matters more than the 59 points. Coleman’s size and catch radius give Manning an outside target who can win without perfect separation. Wingo can threaten vertically or turn a clean intermediate completion into an explosive play. Smothers can align in the backfield, release into a route and punish a linebacker who is late to match him.

Steve Sarkisian can now force Ohio State to declare how it intends to help its corners. A safety tilted toward Coleman creates space for Wingo. A nickel defender occupied by Wingo can leave Smothers on a linebacker. Lightening the box to protect every coverage matchup invites Texas to run.

Manning also enters this game with a larger body of work. He threw for 3,163 yards with 26 touchdowns and seven interceptions in 2025, then closed the year by accounting for 376 yards and four touchdowns against Michigan in the Citrus Bowl. He was 20 of 27 for 305 yards and four touchdowns last week, although one interception remains a reminder that aggressive throws can still create chances for the defense.

Ohio State’s answer is a secondary that changed names without losing its physical profile. Devin Sanchez and Jermaine Mathews Jr. started at corner against Ball State, with Earl Little Jr. and Jaylen McClain at safety. Sanchez broke up two passes. Mathews intercepted Manning in last year’s opener and is now the veteran presence in the group.

The Saturday Index Week 1 comparison places both Ohio State’s secondary and Texas’s quarterback room in the 92nd percentile of the early FBS sample. One game against Ball State or Texas State cannot settle a top-five matchup, but those numbers describe the central contest: Texas improved the options around Manning, while Ohio State appears capable of covering without compromising the rest of its defense.

Ohio State rebuilt the middle of its defense

The Buckeyes entered the season replacing eight defensive starters. Against Ball State, the first group included Kenyatta Jackson Jr. and Zion Grady on the edges, Eddrick Houston and John Walker inside, and Christian Alliegro, TJ Alford and Payton Pierce at linebacker.

The result was overwhelming: 165 yards allowed, 45 on the ground, one field goal and an interception by Alford. Riley Pettijohn led Ohio State with six tackles in the rotation. Again, the opponent matters. Ball State could not force Ohio State to defend a complete formation menu or sustain blocks against the first group.

Texas can. Smothers’ 45-yard run on the opening snap against Texas State immediately set up Coleman’s first touchdown. The threat of Manning keeping the ball widens the defensive count, and Sarkisian’s use of backs in the passing game can put young linebackers in conflict. If Ohio State closes hard on the run action, Manning gets an easy throw behind it. If the linebackers hesitate, Texas gains favorable numbers on the ground.

That makes early-down discipline more important than chasing sacks. Ohio State needs its front to squeeze the run without losing quarterback contain and its linebackers to pass routes cleanly into the secondary. Texas needs to make those defenders communicate across formations, shifts and tempo before the crowd settles.

The Premium report gives Ohio State an early advantage in the front seven. Its Week 1 comparison places the Buckeyes in the 87th percentile along the defensive front and the 90th percentile at linebacker. Texas was 54th percentile in both groups. The samples are thin, but the separation fits the opening evidence: Ohio State allowed 45 rushing yards, while Texas created much of its offensive comfort through space and distribution.

The two offensive lines have different jobs

Ohio State’s starting line against Ball State was Ian Moore, Luke Montgomery, Carson Hinzman, Austin Siereveld and Phillip Daniels. Montgomery, Hinzman, Siereveld and Daniels entered the year with meaningful starting experience; Moore opened Week 1 at left tackle.

Their first responsibility in Austin is to keep Ohio State out of the game Texas wants Simmons to play. Third-and-long would allow him to widen his alignment, attack Moore or Daniels in space and force Sayin to move before the deeper routes develop. Manageable downs keep the entire screen, play-action and quick-game menu available.

Texas’s line faces a different kind of pressure. Manning was sacked only once in last year’s meeting, but Ohio State repeatedly won the high-leverage downs without needing a large sack total. This time the Longhorns need enough interior movement to prevent Walker and Houston from compressing the pocket. Manning is dangerous outside structure; he is less dangerous when an interior rusher forces him backward before he can choose an escape lane.

The first quarter should reveal which offense can stay patient. Texas went 1-for-5 on fourth down and came away empty on two red-zone trips last season; Ohio State converted only 3 of 12 third downs. Neither team needs an immediate knockout. Each needs to avoid giving the opponent a short field while the blocking matchups settle.

Four possessions that could decide it

Texas’s first red-zone trip. The Longhorns had two red-zone opportunities at Ohio State last season and scored on neither. A touchdown on the first trip Saturday changes the emotional and tactical shape of the rematch. Another fourth-down stop would bring last year directly back into the stadium.

Ohio State’s first third-and-long. Ball State rarely made Sayin operate with the pass rush in control. Texas needs to create that situation early and see whether Simmons can reach him before Smith or McCuin clears the coverage.

The first target after Texas doubles Smith. Ohio State’s second receiver is not a ceremonial role. McCuin’s six catches and 97 yards in the opener gave Texas current evidence that the ball can move efficiently away from No. 4. The speed and location of Sayin’s answer will tell us whether the Longhorns can keep using extra coverage.

The possession after the first turnover or failed fourth down. Texas forced three takeaways against Texas State, including a 59-yard fumble return by Littleton. Ohio State allowed only three points against Ball State. In a game projected inside one possession, the offense that converts the sudden field-position advantage may create the margin the other team spends the night chasing.

The free Saturday Index Premium projection

The public Game Intelligence report projects Ohio State 28, Texas 24.

Win outlook: Ohio State 60%, Texas 40%. Those percentages are the estimated chance of each team winning, not a second score projection.

The underlying margin is Ohio State by 3.8 points, displayed as Ohio State -4. The projected total is 51.5, displayed as 52. The most recent verified market comparison on the page was Texas -2 with a total of 49 at 4:30 p.m. ET on September 9.

That difference begins with Ohio State’s defense. The report gives the Buckeyes the clearer Week 1 position-group advantages at defensive front, linebacker and secondary. Texas’s best counter is at quarterback and receiver, where Manning, Wingo and Coleman can create the kind of one-on-one result that makes an aggregate defensive advantage irrelevant on a single snap.

Explore the complete Ohio State–Texas Premium preview →

Why the projection favors Ohio State

Ohio State does not need to reproduce the defensive stranglehold from last season to justify the projection. It needs to make Texas earn long drives, deny the free explosive play and finish two or three high-leverage downs. Its secondary gives the Buckeyes more freedom to do that without committing extra bodies before the snap.

On offense, Sayin’s experience and Smith’s gravity create a dependable way to locate favorable coverage. Texas can win those snaps, but it must do so repeatedly while also accounting for McCuin, the tight ends and two backs who each ran for 83 yards in Week 1.

For Texas, the clearest route starts with Manning using his expanded receiver group to force Ohio State out of its preferred coverage structure. The Longhorns need Simmons and the defensive front to create at least one short field or drive-ending loss. They also need to finish the red-zone possessions that disappeared in Columbus.

Home field and Texas’s new weapons make a repeat of 14–7 unlikely. The matchup is closer than the Week 1 scores and further from settled than the rankings suggest. Ohio State’s edge is not overwhelming. The Buckeyes simply have more answers if the first call breaks down: a secondary that can cover without constant help, multiple receiver matchups for Sayin and a defense built to keep one mistake from becoming seven points.

Saturday Index projection: Ohio State 28, Texas 24.