Saturday Index
Getting this view readyBringing the latest verified football information into focus.
Saturday Index
Getting this view readyBringing the latest verified football information into focus.
2026 · Win-chance results
Published pregame forecasts, checked against final scores.
80.4% correct across 56 completed games.
73.8% correct across 484 games.
A win means the team with the higher published win chance won the game. Exact 50% forecasts have no favorite. Tied finals are counted separately.
| Week | Completed / saved | Wins–losses | Correct |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 so far | 56 / 56 | 45–11 | 80.4% |
| 8 | 55 / 55 | 34–21 | 61.8% |
| 7 | 52 / 52 | 33–19 | 63.5% |
| 6 | 55 / 57 | 35–20 | 63.6% |
| 5 | 55 / 56 | 40–15 | 72.7% |
| 4 | 57 / 57 | 41–16 | 71.9% |
| 3 | 57 / 57 | 50–7 | 87.7% |
| 2 | 49 / 49 | 40–9 | 81.6% |
| 1 | 40 / 40 | 34–6 | 85.0% |
| 0 | 8 / 8 | 5–3 | 62.5% |
Over many games, teams given a 70% chance should win about seven times in ten. Here, each game appears once, under the team with the higher chance.
| Win chance | Games | Average forecast | Actual win rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 50% to under 60% | 108 | 55.2% | 55.6% |
| 60% to under 70% | 101 | 64.7% | 68.3% |
| 70% to under 80% | 111 | 75.0% | 75.7% |
| 80% to under 90% | 89 | 85.3% | 82.0% |
| 90% to 100% | 75 | 95.1% | 94.7% |
The forecast and actual rate should be close over a large sample. A small group of games can vary widely.
484 verified finals from 487 saved forecasts. 0 tied finals and 0 exact 50% forecasts with a decided result are outside the favorite record and calibration table.
3 completed games lack matching pregame evidence. 0 saved forecasts have no completed result available.
Only forecasts saved before kickoff enter this record. The final must match the game, both teams and the confirmed kickoff. We use the original probability, before display rounding, and keep losses in the record. No past forecast is recreated from a final score.
Coverage counts the saved forecasts available here, not every game played. A tied final is counted only as a tie, even if its forecast was exactly 50%.
| Week | Tied finals | 50% forecasts | Evidence missing | No final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |