Analysis
SMU at Louisville: Jennings meets the Cardinals' explosive offense
Kevin Jennings brings unbeaten SMU to Louisville, where Lincoln Kienholz has already produced explosive touchdowns and a close game against Ole Miss.
Saturday, September 19 · 3:30 p.m. ET · ESPN2 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville
Kevin Jennings threw five first-half touchdowns against UC Davis. Lincoln Kienholz threw for 307 yards in his first collegiate start against Ole Miss. Louisville needs to limit Jennings’ receivers; SMU has to contain Kienholz as both a runner and a passer.
SMU is 2–0 after beating Florida State 27–24 and UC Davis 56–10. Louisville lost 41–38 to Ole Miss before beating Villanova 59–13. Both teams have already played a close game against a major-conference opponent.
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Can Louisville limit the big plays?
Jennings threw for 337 yards in one half last week, and a school-record 16 Mustangs caught a pass. SMU also showed it could sustain a drive under pressure in Tallahassee: its winning field goal capped a nine-play, 71-yard possession with 21 seconds left.
Louisville gave up two 62-yard touchdown catches to Deuce Alexander in the third quarter against Ole Miss. Against SMU, the Cardinals need to tackle short completions before they become long gains and avoid losing receivers behind the coverage. Jennings has enough receiving options to keep moving the ball without forcing a deep throw.
Kienholz gives SMU two problems
Kienholz added 69 rushing yards and a touchdown to his 307 passing yards against Ole Miss. He followed that debut with a 19-yard touchdown run and a 69-yard scoring pass to Jaleel Skinner in the first quarter against Villanova. Louisville finished that game with 635 total yards, including 375 through the air.
SMU has to account for the quarterback run without leaving its secondary exposed. A defender who steps toward Kienholz too early can create room behind him; sitting back gives the quarterback a chance to extend a drive on the ground. That is the decision Louisville will try to force.
What to watch Saturday afternoon
Compare how often each offense needs a long drive to score. If Louisville makes SMU work through short completions while Kienholz creates big gains, the Cardinals have a path to controlling the game. If Jennings gets the same long touchdowns Ole Miss found, Louisville could be chasing points again.
Our Premium report pairs the Saturday Index projected score with the matchup comparisons and player usage. This is Louisville’s ACC opener; SMU already has its conference win over Florida State.