Nashville’s Ranked Opener

Week 1 gets one ranked-versus-ranked game. No. 24 Louisville meets No. 9 Ole Miss at Nissan Stadium tonight at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC. Ole Miss returns the quarterback who led last season’s playoff run; Louisville starts a quarterback who threw 36 passes in three years at Ohio State.

Trinidad Chambliss returns after taking Ole Miss through a College Football Playoff run. Lincoln Kienholz makes his first Louisville start after spending three seasons behind Ohio State’s starters. Louisville also has an explosive back, a proven pass rusher and a coach who is 2–2 against top-10 opponents at his alma mater.

Saturday Index Premium projects Ole Miss 35, Louisville 19 and gives the Rebels an 85 percent win outlook. Chambliss and Kewan Lacy give Ole Miss proven production at the two positions Louisville must contain on every snap.

The matchup

Ole Miss can begin with the two players who carried its offense last season. Chambliss threw for 3,937 yards with 22 touchdowns and three interceptions. Kewan Lacy ran for 1,567 yards and 24 scores on an FBS-high 306 carries. Pete Golding enters his first full season as head coach with both back.

Louisville’s offense is less settled. Isaac Brown averaged 8.8 yards per carry last season. Kienholz gives Jeff and Brian Brohm a mobile quarterback with the arm to attack outside the numbers and the legs to add another player to the run count. Clev Lubin must disrupt the new Ole Miss offensive line before Chambliss and Lacy establish the run and play-action game.

Premium projection

Projected margin: Ole Miss by 16 Projected total: 54

The 85–15 split is a win-percentage outlook, not a score. The score projection is 35–19.

Lincoln Kienholz makes his first Louisville start

There is no quarterback competition to hedge in the preview. Kienholz is Louisville’s starter.

What remains uncertain is how his game changes when the offense belongs to him. Across 10 appearances at Ohio State, he completed 21 of 36 passes for 250 yards and one touchdown. He also ran for 68 yards and two scores. Those numbers describe a reserve role, not the ceiling Louisville believes it acquired.

Brian Brohm spent the spring emphasizing Kienholz’s arm strength and the additional run-game possibilities created by his athleticism. Read-option concepts, designed quarterback runs and movement throws can all help a new starter by forcing Ole Miss to account for him before the ball is thrown.

They can also keep Louisville out of obvious passing downs, when Ole Miss can attack the protection and force Kienholz to win from the pocket. Louisville can simplify his early decisions with movement throws, designed runs and Brown beside him in the backfield.

Isaac Brown has to win early downs

Brown ran for 884 yards and seven touchdowns in nine games last season. His 8.8-yard average led the country by more than a yard. Louisville needs him to keep the offense out of third-and-long and limit the number of possessions Ole Miss gets.

That does not mean a series of conservative handoffs. Brown’s acceleration makes him most dangerous when the defense has to hesitate. Kienholz’s keep threat can hold the backside. Motion can change the box count. Early throws can keep the safeties from arriving before Brown has a crease.

Louisville needs Brown’s efficiency more than a specific carry total. Four- and five-yard runs preserve Jeff Brohm’s full call sheet. A few explosives can force Ole Miss to play from behind for the first time in a season opener. Negative runs leave Kienholz facing the part of the job he has experienced least.

If Brown is the most efficient runner on the field, Louisville must turn that advantage into touchdowns. Field goals would leave too much room for the proven offense on the other sideline.

Ole Miss returns Chambliss and Lacy

Golding is entering his first complete season as Ole Miss’s head coach, but this is not a ground-up offensive rebuild. He went 2–1 after taking over during last season’s playoff run, and his quarterback and lead back return.

Chambliss completed 66.1 percent of his passes, threw only three interceptions in 409 attempts and added 527 rushing yards with eight touchdowns. He can punish pressure by finding the open receiver or leaving the pocket himself.

Lacy supplies a different type of reliability. He handled 306 carries last year and still averaged 5.1 yards per attempt. His presence keeps Louisville from treating every Chambliss dropback like a passing down and gives Ole Miss a way to absorb early pressure without abandoning the run.

Chambliss has already produced for a full season in this offense. Louisville has to disrupt his protection and force him into longer third downs before that experience takes over.

Clev Lubin against the Ole Miss offensive line

Lubin produced 13.5 tackles for loss, 8.5 sacks and three forced fumbles last season. Louisville needs more than pressure on the stat sheet. It needs the kind of early-down disruption that changes play selection.

If Lubin or the Cardinals’ interior rotation creates second-and-long, Louisville can vary the picture for Chambliss and make Ole Miss’s rebuilt line communicate through movement. If the Rebels live in second-and-5, Chambliss can use the entire formation while Lacy remains a credible answer.

Chambliss ran for 527 yards last season, so a clean escape can erase a well-designed rush. Louisville’s front must compress the pocket without opening an exit and its linebackers must arrive under control. A forced fumble or tipped interception matters more than a series of pressures that end with Chambliss escaping.

Louisville’s upset plan

Louisville has beaten two top-10 opponents in four tries under Brohm, including No. 2 Miami last season. The Cardinals do not need an exotic plan in Nashville.

• Brown must keep the offense ahead of schedule and produce at least one explosive run.
• Kienholz must use his legs without turning scrambles into unnecessary contact or turnovers.
• Lubin and the front must create a short field rather than merely hurry Chambliss.
• Louisville must finish drives with touchdowns and keep the total number of possessions manageable.

The cleaner the game, the more it favors Ole Miss. Louisville needs disruption: one turnover, one Brown run that flips the field and one Kienholz conversion after the initial play breaks down.

Why Ole Miss projects to win by 16

Louisville can run the ball and pressure the quarterback. Ole Miss still has the safer combination: a proven quarterback–running back pairing against an offense asking a new quarterback to make his first start against a top-10 opponent.

Ole Miss can hand the ball to Lacy when protection breaks down or let Chambliss escape pressure himself. Louisville has less room for error: Brown must be efficient, Kienholz must protect the ball and the Cardinals cannot waste the possessions their defense creates.

Louisville should move the ball better than a 16-point margin suggests. Ole Miss is more likely to finish its drives and less likely to give away a possession.

Saturday Index Premium projection: Ole Miss 35, Louisville 19. Win outlook: Ole Miss 85%, Louisville 15%.

Louisville can threaten Ole Miss if Brown controls first down and Lubin creates a turnover. If neither happens, Chambliss and Lacy should give the Rebels too many reliable ways to score.