Analysis
LSU at Ole Miss: Kiffin returns, but the trenches decide it
Lane Kiffin returns to Oxford with Sam Leavitt listed as questionable. LSU’s rushing attack and Ole Miss’s protection are central to the matchup.
Saturday, September 19 · 7:30 p.m. ET · ABC · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford
Lane Kiffin returns to Oxford with an LSU team that has rushed for 456 yards and eight touchdowns in two games. But the Tigers may have to adjust: quarterback Sam Leavitt and linebacker TJ Dottery were listed as questionable on Thursday’s availability update.
September 17 availability update: Leavitt improved from doubtful on Wednesday to questionable on Thursday, according to ESPN. Neither he nor Dottery has been confirmed in or out. LSU’s quarterback situation could change how it attacks Pete Golding’s defense.
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LSU’s run game depends partly on Leavitt
Leavitt has thrown for 574 yards and accounted for seven touchdowns: two passing and five rushing. If he plays, Ole Miss has to account for his carries as well as LSU’s backs. An extra defender near the line can help against the run, but it also leaves fewer defenders covering the receivers.
Trey’Dez Green leads LSU with 162 receiving yards through two games. The tight end gives the Tigers a target when defenders move toward the run. Whoever starts at quarterback, LSU will need its blockers to create rushing room without relying on Leavitt’s mobility to solve every difficult down.
Can Ole Miss give Chambliss time?
Ole Miss beat Louisville 41–38 after allowing 32 second-half points. Deuce Alexander caught two 62-yard touchdowns, and Trinidad Chambliss led the late possession that set up Lucas Carneiro’s winning field goal. The Rebels showed they could answer a scoring burst; LSU will try to prevent them from building one.
The Tigers have 10 sacks through wins over Clemson and Louisiana Tech. Ole Miss needs to protect Chambliss long enough to find Alexander, who has 13 catches for 235 yards this season. Long completions are harder to create if pressure forces the ball out before receivers can get downfield.
Dottery’s status matters on that side of the ball. The former Ole Miss linebacker’s return adds to the story in Oxford, but his availability remains uncertain. LSU’s early defensive production should not be treated as a guarantee of what a different lineup will deliver Saturday.
Our projection and the availability question
Saturday Index’s published projection is Ole Miss 31, LSU 25, with a 65% Ole Miss win outlook. That forecast has not been revised for Thursday’s availability update. Check the final player statuses before treating it as an assessment of the lineup that takes the field.
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