Lambeau Under the Lights

No. 4 Notre Dame opens its season against Wisconsin at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock. Wisconsin rebuilt its offense around quarterback Colton Joseph. His first test comes against Notre Dame’s experienced linebackers, Leonard Moore at corner and a reinforced defensive interior.

Saturday Index Premium projects Notre Dame 37, Wisconsin 13 and gives the Irish a 94 percent win outlook. Wisconsin needs Joseph to extend drives and its defensive front to keep CJ Carr from operating on favorable downs.

The matchup

Wisconsin added 34 players through the transfer portal and will start Joseph, who accounted for 34 touchdowns at Old Dominion last season. Notre Dame counters with Leonard Moore outside, proven linebackers in Drayk Bowen and Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa, and an interior defensive line reinforced by transfers Francis Brewu and Tionne Gray. The Irish offense is replacing two first-round running backs and sorting through injuries up front, which gives Wisconsin a way to keep the game close. The problem is sustaining that resistance for four quarters while its own new offensive line deals with Notre Dame’s depth.

Premium projection

Projected margin: Notre Dame by 24 Projected total: 50

The 94–6 split is a win-percentage outlook, not a score. The score projection is 37–13.

Colton Joseph against Notre Dame’s front

Wisconsin’s official spring prospectus credits Joseph with 2,624 passing yards and 21 touchdown passes at Old Dominion in 2025, plus 1,007 rushing yards and 13 scores. Even when the first read is covered, his legs can turn a clean defensive call into a first down.

Notre Dame is equipped to rush without emptying the second level. The Irish added defensive tackles Francis Brewu from Pitt and Tionne Gray from Oregon. Armel Mukam, a 6-foot-3, 300-pound junior, emerged from camp as an opening starter next to Jason Onye.

Behind them, Bowen and Viliamu-Asa are linebackers, not defensive linemen. Bowen is the experienced organizer in the middle. Viliamu-Asa was listed as questionable on Notre Dame’s late-week availability report because of a knee issue, an important game-day check because his range is useful against a quarterback who can break structure.

Joseph does not need 100 rushing yards for his legs to matter. A pair of third-down scrambles would extend drives, keep Carr on the sideline and force Notre Dame to pull a defender away from coverage.

It also depends on the five players in front of him. Wisconsin is introducing a transfer-led offense within a roster that welcomed more than 50 new players, including 34 portal additions. Starting-line candidates Kevin Heywood and Emerson Mandell were described as game-time decisions during the week. If either is limited, the burden on a new protection unit rises immediately.

Wisconsin says it will test Leonard Moore

Luke Fickell said Wisconsin cannot erase an entire side of the field from its offense because of Moore. He also described the Notre Dame corner as a possible top-two or top-three NFL draft pick and a player with a chance to establish himself as the best in the country.

The distinction is between testing Moore and feeding him opportunities. Moore has seven interceptions and 18 pass breakups through his first two seasons and was a Thorpe Award finalist in 2025. His value is not limited to throws directed at him. If Notre Dame can leave him isolated, the defense can commit more bodies to Joseph and the interior run without surrendering easy access outside.

Wisconsin can use motion to force communication, route combinations that make Moore pass receivers across zones and throws to the opposite side created by the attention he commands. Repeated stationary isolation routes favor Notre Dame.

Joseph’s mobility can create the best chances. A scramble that pulls a safety downhill can change the picture late and give a receiver space behind the first reaction. Wisconsin has to manufacture those moments without asking Joseph to live under pressure.

Notre Dame replaces two first-round running backs

Notre Dame’s most obvious loss is in the backfield. Jeremiyah Love went third overall in the 2026 NFL Draft. Jadarian Price went 32nd. They gave the Irish two first-round backs with different ways to punish a defense, and neither is replaceable by simply moving the next name up the depth chart.

Aneyas Williams opens as the lead back, with Kedren Young and Nolan James behind him. Williams already proved he can help as a receiver and in pass protection. What Notre Dame must discover is how the new rotation handles the volume that Love and Price absorbed—and whether it can create explosive runs without perfect blocking.

The offensive line gives Wisconsin its clearest point of attack. Ashton Craig is back at center, but Charles Jagusah is among the Irish players ruled out and the opening depth chart still used an “or” at right guard between Sullivan Absher and Styles Prescod. Wisconsin has to exploit any communication problems before Notre Dame settles on its best five.

That means winning early downs before Carr can operate the full call sheet. If the Irish stay in second-and-5, Carr can use play action, movement throws and Notre Dame’s receiver depth without exposing the line to obvious pressure. If Wisconsin creates second-and-10 and third-and-8, the game becomes far less comfortable.

Carr is not making his first college start. He completed 66.7 percent of his passes for 2,741 yards and 24 touchdowns in 2025. Wisconsin can disguise pressure and challenge the new protection combinations, but Carr has already seen enough college coverage to punish a late rotation.

Wisconsin has to pressure Carr with four

The Badgers lost their two leading sack producers from 2025. Darryl Peterson III had 6.5 sacks and Mason Reiger had five, a combined 11.5 that has to come from somewhere else.

Wisconsin’s best defensive outcome does not require a constant blitz. It requires the new front to affect Carr with four rushers while linebackers Cooper Catalano and Mason Posa stay available for Notre Dame’s backs and underneath routes. Catalano and Posa give the Badgers a promising interior pair, but the structure around them is new.

If Wisconsin must send a fifth defender to create pressure, Carr will have clear one-on-one answers. If the Badgers sit back without affecting him, Notre Dame can let the new offensive line settle in. Wisconsin needs four-man pressure, short fields and fewer possessions to keep this close.

What Wisconsin needs to keep it close

The Badgers need to shorten the game and avoid obvious passing downs.

• Joseph must turn a few broken plays into first downs without putting the ball in danger.
• Abu Sama III and the rest of the backfield must make Notre Dame honor the run before obvious passing downs.
• Wisconsin must create at least one short field through pressure or special teams.
• The defense must keep Notre Dame from turning routine completions into explosive gains.

That is a demanding list, but Lambeau has hosted this kind of opener before. Wisconsin arrived as an unranked underdog in 2016 and beat No. 5 LSU 16–14. The venue does not create an upset; a low-possession game with a few decisive plays can.

Why Notre Dame projects to win by 24

Notre Dame has more depth across the defensive front and the more experienced quarterback. Joseph can make the Irish uncomfortable, but Wisconsin’s new line also has to protect him, create a conventional running game and handle Notre Dame’s rotation for four quarters. Moore makes that job harder because Notre Dame can leave him outside and devote help elsewhere.

Wisconsin’s defense can create problems early while Notre Dame sorts out its backfield rotation and best five offensive linemen. Over four quarters, Carr’s experience and Notre Dame’s defensive depth should create more favorable field position and more scoring chances.

Saturday Index Premium projection: Notre Dame 37, Wisconsin 13. Win outlook: Notre Dame 94%, Wisconsin 6%.

Wisconsin can stay within reach only if Joseph converts third downs, protects the ball and keeps Notre Dame’s offense on the sideline.