Analysis
Week 5 recap: Miami rolls in Death Valley, Missouri rocks Florida
Miami took apart Clemson. Missouri brought Florida back to earth. Northwestern opened its new stadium by running straight through Penn State. And Jeremiah Smith left Iowa with an Ohio State record.
The weekend gave us three very different statements: a contender imposing itself on the road, a newly celebrated team getting flattened, and an underdog turning a stadium opening into a program moment. Week 6 now brings Georgia–Alabama, the Red River rivalry and a much more interesting Texas A&M–Missouri matchup.
Miami made Death Valley look ordinary
Miami's 41–13 win was its first at Clemson since 2010. The Hurricanes scored on their opening possession, led 17–6 at halftime and kept squeezing the game from both sides of the ball.
Darian Mensah completed 18 of 27 passes for 227 yards and a touchdown, adding a 34-yard rushing score. Mark Fletcher Jr. scored twice on the ground. One of those touchdowns finished a 14-play, 83-yard drive that consumed almost eight minutes in the third quarter.
The defense supplied the other half of the story: six sacks, nine tackles for loss and a late interception returned for a touchdown. Damon Wilson II had 2.5 sacks. Clemson never established a sustained answer.
The takeaway is Miami's range. Mensah can produce an explosive play; the offense can also take an entire chunk of a quarter away. Pair that with a pass rush that keeps an opponent behind schedule and this becomes a difficult team to chase.
Missouri erased Florida's momentum
A week after Florida dismantled Ole Miss, Missouri beat the Gators 45–17. This game was tied at 10 late in the second quarter. Then the Tigers scored 35 unanswered points.
Jamal Roberts ran for 211 yards and three touchdowns, including an 80-yard score. Austin Simmons completed 23 of 30 passes for 340 yards and two touchdowns. Cayden Lee caught eight passes for 110 yards and a score.
Florida's running game tells the other side of the result: Jadan Baugh managed 13 yards on 12 carries. Missouri could move the ball through either phase; Florida lost the ground attack that would have helped it settle the game.
Both teams left 4–1. Missouri gets Texas A&M at home next, while Florida has to show that the Ole Miss performance can travel. The SEC race looks different when a team can go from a 52–28 win to a 28-point defeat in seven days.
Northwestern opened Ryan Field with 413 rushing yards
Penn State's 34–13 loss at Northwestern started the weekend's surprises on Friday. The Wildcats never trailed and piled up 413 rushing yards in the opening game at the new Ryan Field.
Caleb Komolafe ran for 188 yards and a touchdown; Joseph Himon II added 162 yards and two scores on just 10 carries. Their combined 350 rushing yards made this a relentless ground-game win rather than a result built around one late break.
Penn State finished the night 0–2 in Big Ten play. For Northwestern, a stadium debut became a performance worth building around.
Smith's record, Carr's four touchdowns and Alabama's takeaway avalanche
Ohio State beat Iowa 31–14, outgained the Hawkeyes 484–238 and held them to 39 rushing yards. Jeremiah Smith's second touchdown gave him 36 career receiving scores, passing Chris Olave for the school record.
Notre Dame won 37–26 at North Carolina behind CJ Carr's four touchdown passes. The Tar Heels closed to 21–20 after returning the second-half kickoff for a touchdown; the Irish answered with two long drives that used 13 minutes of the third quarter. Jonaz Walton finished with 120 rushing yards.
Alabama won 56–23 at Mississippi State and scored two touchdowns in every quarter. Four forced turnovers produced 21 points for the Tide, which heads into the Georgia game at 5–0.
Our Week 5 model and posted selections
The published Premium forecast matched 41 of 56 winners: 73.2%. Its average absolute margin error was 14.01 points, and its win-probability Brier score was 0.176, where lower is better. These figures cover the full published Week 5 slate.
Pittsburgh's projected 1.9-point win finished as a two-point win at Virginia Tech; Houston's projected 9.2-point win finished as a 10-point win over UCF. The largest margin misses included Wake Forest–Stanford and Baylor–Arizona State. Getting a winner right and getting the size of the win right are separate parts of the forecast.
The four selections we posted went 1–3 ATS at their recorded lines. UConn +7 covered in its 42–41 overtime loss to Syracuse. Notre Dame −21 and Ohio −3.5 did not cover. Rule 5's separate selection, USC −9.5, also did not cover in a 25–21 win over Washington. The three Premium selections went 1–2; Rule 5 went 0–1.
Three games to circle in Week 6
Texas A&M at Missouri starts Saturday at noon Eastern. Missouri has just shown how dangerous its offense can be at home; A&M arrives after a 34–7 win over Arkansas. Our current win outlook is almost even: Missouri 52%, Texas A&M 48%.
Texas–Oklahoma follows at 3:30 p.m. Eastern in Dallas. Our current outlook gives Texas a 63% chance to win.
Georgia at Alabama closes the trio at 7:30 p.m. Eastern. Our free report projects Alabama 28, Georgia 25, with Alabama at 58%. Open it for the matchup, player research and the numbers behind that forecast.
Read the free Georgia–Alabama report
Explore the full Week 6 Game Radar
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