Analysis
Week 4 recap: Florida and LSU make statements, Texas and Iowa survive on the road
Florida runs for 302 yards, LSU holds Texas A&M under 200, and our eight published selections finish 5–3. The scores, the details and our first CFBD weekly scorecard.
Florida scored 52 against Ole Miss. LSU held Texas A&M to six. Texas and Iowa escaped with road wins separated by a combined four points. Week 4 delivered both blowouts that demand a reassessment and close games that came down to finding one more stop.
Florida ran through Ole Miss. LSU overwhelmed Texas A&M.
Florida’s 52–28 win came with 302 rushing yards, 498 total yards and no turnovers. The Gators held the ball for 36:59 and converted six of 10 third downs. Ole Miss still produced 426 yards, but its two turnovers and far smaller share of possession left little room to keep pace. Florida won the line-of-scrimmage story as clearly as the scoreboard.
LSU’s 35–6 win was even more one-sided statistically: 506 yards to Texas A&M’s 197. Sam Leavitt threw for 312 yards and two touchdowns. The Aggies managed 106 passing yards, went 4-for-15 on third down and threw two interceptions. LSU gave A&M no reliable way to sustain offense.
Both results were major misses for our pregame model. The submitted margins favored Ole Miss by about 5.1 points and Texas A&M by 1.5; Florida won by 24 and LSU by 29. Those two games are central to our Week 4 projection review.
Georgia and Oregon win by very different routes
Georgia beat Oklahoma 41–13, although the Bulldogs’ total-yardage edge was just 306–296. The more revealing numbers were Oklahoma’s four turnovers and 2-for-14 third-down performance. The final score describes the separation; the yardage alone would not.
Oregon’s 41–27 win at USC came with 504 yards and no turnovers. Dylan Raiola completed 19 of 25 passes for 289 yards and two touchdowns, while Dante Moore added 77 passing yards. USC produced 446 yards of its own but converted only two of 11 third downs. Oregon had the cleaner offensive day in a game with plenty of production on both sides.
Texas and Iowa leave with narrow road wins
Texas won 20–17 at Tennessee despite two turnovers and 11 penalties for 115 yards. Its defense held the Volunteers to 221 total yards and 4-for-16 on third down. Our pregame contest margin favored Texas by approximately 0.8 points; the three-point finish was one of the closer matches between our forecast and the result.
Iowa won 20–19 at Michigan despite being outgained 429–285. Hank Brown threw for 227 yards and two touchdowns, and the Hawkeyes finished without a turnover. We had Michigan favored by roughly 2.3 points: a close margin forecast, but the wrong winner.
Elsewhere, Wisconsin beat Penn State 24–20, and Mississippi State beat Missouri 31–24. The week’s results gave several teams outside the headline SEC matchups their own reason to move the conversation.
The published selections finish 5–3
Friday’s seven projections went 4–3 against the lines in the graphic. Arkansas −7, Texas Tech −34.5, UConn +3.5 and Vanderbilt +9.5 covered. Missouri +6, Texas A&M +8.5 and West Virginia −1.5 did not.
Texas Tech won by 35 and UConn lost by three, so both covered by half a point. Missouri’s seven-point loss missed its +6 line by one point.
Rule 5’s New Mexico −11.5 selection won as the Lobos beat New Mexico State 42–18. Rule 5 is now 1–3 for the season. Combined with the seven projections, the eight selections in Friday’s graphic finished 5–3 for Week 4.
See our projection receipts and official selections
Our first CFBD Model Pick’em scorecard
All 58 Saturday Index forecasts were graded in Week 4. At Sunday morning’s check, Saturday Index was 47th of 75 models in the official weekly composite ordering: 42 correct winners out of 58 (72.41%), 53.45% against the contest’s spreads and 12.85 points of average absolute margin error.
Our official spread-performance rank was tied for 19th; our margin-error rank was 54th. The margin error was 1.46 points above the contest’s closing-line benchmark. We will publish the weekly row as the season progresses, including weeks like this one.
The full 58-game contest entry is separate from the eight selected plays above. CFBD grades our submitted margins; it does not grade our projected totals or exact team scores.
CFBD leaderboard — select 2026 and Week 4
On to Week 5
Florida’s rushing performance and LSU’s defensive control are the clearest takeaways from the featured slate. Texas and Iowa banked close road wins, while Oregon left USC with a two-touchdown result. The next forecasts will incorporate the completed Week 4 results.
