Analysis
Money can buy the roster. It cannot guarantee success.
Auburn, Texas and Tennessee entered 2025 with top-10 spending expectations and finished short of their own standards. Texas Tech was the 12-2 Big 12 champion counterexample.
The 2025 offseason delivered a clean slogan and a messy reality. Programs could buy proven quarterbacks, starting tackles and ready-made depth. They still could not buy health, cohesion, development or the right answer on third down.
On3 surveyed 17 people across college football—head coaches, administrators, general managers, collective operators and agents—and asked which 10 programs they believed spent the most to build a 2025 roster. Texas appeared on every ballot. Auburn, Tennessee and Texas Tech all made the resulting top 10.
The survey reflected informed estimates rather than comparable program disclosures. The examples below therefore are not a claim that spending caused failure—or that it caused success. They show the work that still has to happen after the roster is assembled.
Auburn: money could not fix the quarterback and line
Survey position: 10th
Final record: 5-7, no bowl
Auburn had spent on a roster with enough defensive talent to keep games manageable. The offense broke the plan. CBS Sports identified the central failures by late September: the Tigers had missed at quarterback and along the offensive line while a defense allowing 16 points per game was being wasted. Auburn failed to score 20 points in each of its first four SEC games.
The problem was not a lack of recognizable players. It was protection, quarterback decisions and an offense that could not convert field position into points. Hugh Freeze was fired after the Tigers fell to 1-5 in SEC play. A roster built to make a jump instead finished 5-7 for the third consecutive losing season under Freeze.
Texas: the quarterback grew, but the season ran out first
Survey position: first
Final record: 10-3, Citrus Bowl winner, missed CFP
Texas opened as the preseason No. 1 with Arch Manning starting for the first time. The Longhorns finished 10-3 and beat Michigan 41-27 in the Citrus Bowl, a good season by almost any standard and a disappointment relative to their roster, ranking and recent CFP appearances.
The offense did not become dependable quickly enough. Manning was uneven early, and questions about whether the offensive line could give him clean time followed Texas into October. The 35-10 loss to Georgia removed the remaining CFP path. By the bowl, Manning was creating explosives with his arm and legs, but the growth came after the selection committee's work was done.
Texas is the useful middle case: spending helped create a deep, talented roster capable of 10 wins. It did not compress a first-year starting quarterback's development into August or erase the cost of losing the wrong games.
Tennessee: an elite offense could not cover every defensive leak
Survey position: ninth
Final record: 8-5, Music City Bowl loss
Tennessee's summer quarterback disruption did not sink the offense. Joey Aguilar arrived late, completed 67.3% of his passes for 3,565 yards and helped the Volunteers average 39.8 points. The money and portal work produced enough scoring.
The defense did not hold up. Tennessee allowed 28.9 points per game after allowing 16.1 in 2024, surrendered 45 points to Vanderbilt at home and then lost 30-28 to Illinois in the Music City Bowl. The Vols finished 8-5, their worst record under Josh Heupel since his first season, and entered 2026 needing a defensive reset.
The lesson is roster-wide. One successful transaction can solve quarterback. It cannot simultaneously repair coverage communication, recreate lost pass-rush depth and correct a defense during the season.
The counterexample: Texas Tech made the pieces fit
Survey position: second
Final record: 12-2, Big 12 champion, CFP quarterfinalist
Texas Tech invested more than $25 million in its 2025 roster, according to ESPN and The Dallas Morning News. Preseason reporting counted 22 transfers signed or brought in during the cycle. Texas Tech's official championship-game notes listed 21 transfer newcomers on that roster, while ESPN reported that 11 transfers started the Big 12 title game and four earned first-team all-conference honors.
The contrast was visible in football terms. Texas Tech paired one of the country's highest-scoring offenses with the Big 12's best defense, beat BYU 34-7 for the program's first Big 12 title and reached the CFP. The season ended with a 23-0 quarterfinal loss to Oregon, but 12 wins and a conference championship made the Red Raiders the survey's clearest positive-outcome case.
The acquisition plan matched the roster. Proven starters filled defined jobs. The front improved. The newcomers joined returning players instead of becoming a collection of isolated names. Coaching, role definition and fit distinguish the season, but the result does not prove that spending itself caused the title.
What 2025 actually proved
The largest budgets bought options. They made it easier to replace a miss, retain a star and add a veteran at a scarce position. They did not guarantee that coaches chose the right quarterback, that an offensive line developed together, that a secondary stayed healthy or that a team peaked before its decisive games.
Auburn had a quarterback-and-protection problem. Texas needed time for a new starter and could not recover from the schedule's most damaging loss. Tennessee could score but could not repair its defense during the season. Texas Tech aligned spending, evaluation, role and scheme well enough to win a league.
That is the honest relationship between money and winning. Investment changes the range of possible answers. Football decides whether the answers work.