Analysis
USC needs sustained drives against Ohio State
No. 2 Ohio State (6–1) at USC (6–2) · Saturday, October 31 · 7:30 p.m. ET · NBC · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Saturday Index gives Ohio State a 74% win chance. USC needs a better offensive performance after losing 24–7 at Wisconsin last Saturday. Ohio State allows 13.4 points a game. Short possessions would put USC’s defense back on the field against Jeremiah Smith before the Trojans have done much to help themselves.
USC has enough passing production to make the matchup interesting. Jayden Maiava has thrown for 2,302 yards this season. He has 19 touchdown passes. The Trojans convert 50.5% of their third downs, which has helped them extend drives. Ohio State allows 171.4 passing yards a game, so USC cannot assume those completions will come as readily this week.
The Trojans beat Washington 25–21 at home on October 3. They followed that with a 31–23 win at Penn State. The Wisconsin loss came on October 24. Those earlier wins show that USC has found enough offense in competitive games; the next task is to produce it against the Buckeyes’ defense.
Smith creates a different problem when Ohio State has the ball. He has 984 receiving yards this season. His 12 touchdown catches give USC a reason to keep help nearby. Smith averages 18.9 yards per reception, so one missed tackle or coverage mistake can undo several well-defended plays.
USC’s ability to provide that help depends partly on its run defense. Ohio State averages 4.0 yards per carry. USC allows 3.6. If the Trojans can contain the run with their defensive front, they can leave more attention on Smith. If they have to bring another defender forward, Ohio State can test the space that leaves behind.
Bo Jackson leads the Buckeyes with 516 rushing yards. USC’s King Miller has 602 rushing yards. Useful gains from either back would make the next passing situation less predictable and reduce the need to convert a long third down.
Ohio State has won five straight games. Its most recent win was 19–15 at Indiana on October 17. That followed a 45–16 home win over Maryland. The Indiana result shows that keeping Ohio State’s scoring down does not settle the game by itself; USC still needs drives that end in points.