Florida’s defense has to give Baugh more possessions

Saturday Index gives Georgia an 83% win chance. Florida’s defense has to end drives for the Gators to keep this close. Georgia converts 53.9% of its third downs. Florida allows opponents to convert 43.7%. A stop on the first two plays will mean little if Georgia gets another set of downs on the third.

That would also keep Jadan Baugh off the field. Baugh has 763 rushing yards this season. He has scored 13 rushing touchdowns. Florida needs his carries to leave manageable distances for the next play, so its offense can choose between another run and a pass. Falling behind the chains would make Georgia’s job easier.

The Bulldogs allow 91.4 rushing yards a game. Opponents average 2.8 yards per carry against them. Florida’s rushing average is 4.8, so sustaining its usual production would require a strong afternoon against this front. Baugh does not need a long run on every series. A few steady gains would keep Georgia from preparing for an obvious passing down.

Florida won 27–24 at Texas in its last game on October 17. That followed a 38–19 home loss to South Carolina. The Gators had also lost 45–17 at Missouri. The Texas win gives Florida something to build on after those two heavy defeats, but its defense now faces an offense that can move the ball in more than one way.

Georgia averages 6.0 yards per rush. Gunner Stockton has thrown 16 touchdown passes. Bringing extra help toward the line could make it harder for Florida to defend the receivers. Keeping that help back would put more responsibility on the defensive front to contain the run. Florida needs to force longer third downs without giving Georgia easy gains before it gets there.

The Bulldogs beat Alabama 20–17 on October 10. They then lost 27–24 at home to Auburn on October 17. Both Georgia and Florida had last weekend off. Each returns with a recent close game to work from, but Florida’s two earlier losses make its defensive stops particularly important.

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