Analysis
BYU needs third-down stops against Arizona State
Arizona State (4–3) at No. 8 BYU (6–1) · Saturday, October 31 · 3:30 p.m. ET · FOX · LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo
Saturday Index gives BYU an 80% win chance. The Cougars return home after losing 39–31 in two overtimes at UCF. The Knights converted nine of their 16 third downs in that game. BYU needs to finish those stops against Arizona State so its offense has more chances with the ball.
BYU converts 54.7% of its own third downs this season. Arizona State converts 30.1%. Those rates describe different offenses, but the contrast shows why extending possessions matters in this matchup. If the Cougars sustain their drives while forcing punts, Arizona State will need more from the opportunities it does get.
The run gives BYU a place to begin. The Cougars average 5.4 yards per carry. Arizona State allows 4.5. Bear Bachmeier has 321 rushing yards this season. He has scored seven rushing touchdowns, giving the Sun Devils another ball carrier to account for when they defend BYU.
Bachmeier also has 1,514 passing yards. Legend Glasker has 498 receiving yards. Kyler Kasper has added 373. If BYU gains enough on the ground to leave manageable distances, Bachmeier can use those receivers without Arizona State knowing that a pass is coming.
Reed Harris is a major threat on the other side. He has 800 receiving yards this season. He has caught eight touchdown passes. Arizona State averages 267.4 passing yards a game, and Harris gives it a way to score without needing a long series of successful plays. BYU cannot let its effort to stop the run leave him room downfield.
The Sun Devils also face a defense allowing 98.1 rushing yards a game. If BYU contains the run, Arizona State’s passing game will have to create enough first downs to improve on its season conversion rate. Early completions could help keep the Sun Devils out of situations where BYU can anticipate the throw.
Arizona State beat Kansas State 28–17 last Saturday. That followed a 53–25 loss at Texas Tech. Before losing at UCF, BYU beat Notre Dame 28–24 at home. The Cougars had also beaten Iowa State 24–10 in Provo. This is BYU’s first game since its first loss of the season.