Texas State at Texas

The decisive matchup is Texas State's protection against the Texas front. Colin Simmons led the SEC with 12 sacks in 2025, and Pitt transfer Rasheem Biles arrives after a 101-tackle, 17-tackle-for-loss season. The Bobcats added offensive tackle Rasheed Jackson from TCU and interior lineman Jaylen Early from Missouri, but their exact five-man combination remains unsettled. If the pocket holds, Beau Sparks and Chris Dawn Jr. give Texas State two returning targets who each topped 1,000 receiving yards last season. They will challenge a Texas secondary with multiple experienced options but still sorting its corner, safety and nickel combinations.

Texas' cleanest route to control is to keep Manning on schedule behind all-conference left tackle Trevor Goosby, then make Texas State defend Ryan Wingo and Auburn transfer Cam Coleman across the field. On defense, early pressure from Simmons can force long third downs and shrink the Bobcats' menu. Texas State's route is clear: protect the ball, limit negative plays and prevent explosive passes, then use field position and third-down stops to keep the game compressed. Sustained possessions would create more chances for Sparks and Dawn while keeping Manning and the Longhorns' rebuilt supporting cast waiting on the sideline.